El Niño Advisory in effect — Niño 3.4 at +2.6 °C Latest updates
Latest official El Niño advisories, forecasts and situation updates from meteorological agencies around the world, summarised and sourced.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports weekly SST departures of +3.2 °C in Niño 1+2 and +1.8 °C in Niño 3.4, a May–July RONI of 1.0 °C, and a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño from September–November through November–January 2026-27.
1 official source cited
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center held its El Niño Advisory on 13 August 2026, citing July values of +1.4 °C in Niño-3.4 and +2.9 °C in Niño-1+2, a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event in fall and winter 2026-27, and a separate 69% chance of a historic event in October-December.
1 official source cited
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event from September–November through November–January 2026-27 and a 69% chance of a historic event in October–December.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET expects El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to drive above-average October–December short rains in Kenya, easing pastoral Crisis conditions to Stressed while raising flood risk. Maize in the North Rift and west faces an estimated 15 percent yield loss.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's June 2026–January 2027 Latin America outlook says El Niño is bringing below-average rain and above-average heat across the region, with 3.0–3.49 million people in Haiti facing Crisis or Emergency outcomes and 4.0–4.99 million in Colombia expected to need food assistance.
1 official source cited
The IFRC says the Colombian Red Cross activated its drought Early Action Protocol in June 2026, targeting 2,400 people in Tolima and Cesar as forecasts show a more than 50% chance of below-normal rainfall from June to August.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET reports a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) through January 2027 in Akobo, Nyirol, Ulang and Nasir, citing conflict, record rainfall deficits under strengthening El Niño conditions, and red sorghum prices up 43 percent in Nasir.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET says Lesotho's 2026 maize crop will be 30 percent below last year and nearly 50 percent under the five-year average, with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions expected in southern regions through January 2027 as El Niño delays the next rainy season.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET reports that El Niño conditions and the canícula damaged Guatemala's primera maize crops, with much of the Dry Corridor recording only five to eight rain days between 20 June and 20 July, and the poorest households classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September.
1 official source cited
NASA Earth Observatory reports that PACE satellite chlorophyll maps show substantially lower phytoplankton abundance in the central equatorial Pacific in June 2026 versus neutral June 2025, as NOAA's CPC gives a 97 percent chance El Niño lasts into early spring 2027.
1 official source cited
The European Space Agency reports that its SMOS satellite, launched in 2009, is tracking the eastward shift of the western Pacific freshwater pool during the current emerging El Niño, and that researchers are building an ENSO-specific sea-surface salinity index to complement temperature indices.
1 official source cited
EUMETSAT says Copernicus Sentinel-3C is planned for launch later this year to replace Sentinel-3A, extending a mission measuring sea surface temperature, sea level, wind, waves and chlorophyll into the 2030s. Marine applications manager Estelle Obligis describes the preparations.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET expects Stressed (IPC Phase 2)-aligned outcomes in southern Angola from July to September, deteriorating to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October to January 2027, as El Niño rainfall deficits, a 5 percent diesel price rise and maize meal at 1,144 AOA/kg erode purchasing power.
1 official source cited
UN News reports that anticipatory action funding reached over three million people in southern Africa and 5.5 million in eastern Africa between 2023 and 2025, while FAO and WFP aim to reach 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries as El Niño is expected to intensify.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's Asia Food Security Outlook for June 2026–January 2027 links a forecast below-average monsoon to a poor kharif harvest, with assistance needs peaking at 17.00–17.99 million people in Pakistan in December–January.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's July 2026 update for Zimbabwe expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to emerge in October in deficit-producing areas, with maize grain at 0.34–0.57 USD/kg there versus 0.22 USD/kg in surplus zones, and over 115,000 returnees recorded at Beitbridge.
1 official source cited
The UN World Food Programme says a strengthening El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity, lifting the total across 45 vulnerable countries from 225 million to 274 million, a rise of about 22 per cent.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity in Toliara II and Amboasary Atsimo from July 2026, spreading across Atsimo-Andrefana, Androy and parts of Anosy from October, with agricultural labour earnings running 20 to 40 percent below average.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's July 30, 2026 West Africa Seasonal Monitor reports flood deaths of about 59 in Côte d'Ivoire, 13 in Ghana and 5 in Togo since mid-May, while April 1–July 25 rainfall reached only 30 to 90 percent of average in parts of the Sahel.
1 official source cited
The Copernicus multi-model ensemble initialised around 1 August projects a mean Niño 3.4 anomaly near 3.5°C for December 2026, with about 91% of members exceeding the 2015–16 record — though ECMWF cautions that absolute anomalies overstate the event against today's warm baseline.
4 official sources cited
The World Meteorological Organization says the 2026 El Niño is likely to strengthen further and peak around September–November, with model projections showing seasonal sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2.9°C in key monitoring regions.
2 official sources cited
The Bureau of Meteorology's relative Niño3.4 index reached +1.94°C in the week ending 26 July, well past its +0.80°C threshold, while the Indian Ocean Dipole index touched positive territory for the first time this year.
2 official sources cited
Peru's ENFEN committee maintained its Coastal El Niño Alert in Comunicado N° 13-2026, saying a strong coastal event will most likely persist until April 2027 and that an extraordinary magnitude late in 2026 cannot be ruled out.
3 official sources cited
Japan's weather agency says El Niño conditions have persisted since spring 2026 and puts the probability of continuation through boreal autumn at 100%, with its NINO.3 index reaching +1.9°C in June.
3 official sources cited
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in effect and gives a 97% chance the event lasts into early spring 2027. CPC's weekly index has climbed steadily to +2.2 °C, and forecasters say the event could rank among the largest on record.
4 official sources cited
Indonesia's climate agency says more than half the country's land area faces below-normal rainfall this dry season, which peaks in August, and puts the odds of El Niño reaching at least moderate intensity at 98%.
2 official sources cited
The Philippine weather service formally declared El Niño with its first advisory of the 2026 event, reporting 19 provinces already in meteorological drought and more than 80% model probability that conditions persist until early 2027.
3 official sources cited
India's weather service cut its southwest monsoon forecast to 90% of the long-period average in its late-May update, assigning a 60% chance of a deficient season as El Niño develops with no offsetting help from the Indian Ocean.
4 official sources cited
China's National Climate Center says the tropical Pacific entered an El Niño state in May 2026 and sees a possible strong event by year-end, while Korea's KMA forecasts an above-normal-temperature summer with generally abundant rainfall.
4 official sources cited