El Niño Advisory in effect — Niño 3.4 at +3.2 °C Latest updates
Latest official El Niño advisories, forecasts and situation updates from meteorological agencies around the world, summarised and sourced.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center kept its El Niño Advisory on 8 October 2026, reporting Niño-3.4 at +2.1 °C, Niño-3 at +3.0 °C and Niño-1+2 at +3.9 °C, and putting the chance of a 3-month RONI of +2.5 °C or more at 83% for October–December.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's first 2026-27 El Niño Special Report says the event reached very strong levels in September 2026, with NOAA's CPC giving greater than 90 percent odds it persists through winter. Peak food assistance needs are expected across 2027, and in Southern Africa during the 2027/28 lean season.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's September 2026 key message update for Burkina Faso keeps Karo Peli province at Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) through January 2027, reports 11,316 people displaced in August and maize priced 47 percent above average at Diapaga.
1 official source cited
UN News reports UNICEF analysis finding more than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries face unusually wet or dry conditions from October to December 2026, with 190 million of them in Asia and the Pacific.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's West Africa Seasonal Monitor records cumulative rainfall deficits from Mauritania to Chad, millet WRSI below 90% of average in the northern Sahel, and dry spells exceeding 11 days in Senegal, Mauritania and Mali as the season closes.
1 official source cited
A EUMETSAT case study drawing on satellite records since 1991 finds El Niño summers across much of Europe tend to be warmer, sunnier and drier, and says the 2026 very strong event may have partly amplified a summer that C3S ranked Europe's third warmest.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET says Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist in Honduras's Dry Corridor and Gulf of Fonseca through October, with white maize prices nearly 39% above the five-year average and urea 51.8% above it as El Niño strengthens.
1 official source cited
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports weekly departures of 2.3 °C in Niño 3.4 and 4.5 °C in Niño 1+2, a July–September RONI of 1.7 °C, and a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's September update places 24 South Sudan counties in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and keeps a credible risk of Famine in Akobo, Nyirol, Ulang and Nasir through January 2027, citing conflict, El Niño-driven drought and a 23–24 percent currency depreciation.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET says Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in parts of southern and central Malawi from October 2026 to January 2027, after national maize prices rose 16 percent in August to 907 MWK/kg and tobacco revenue fell 44 percent year on year.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's September 2026 Zimbabwe update says Crisis (IPC Phase 3) hunger is likely from October through at least January in deficit districts, while the government approved a six-pillar El Niño plan, wheat plantings reached 130,300 hectares and 2.23 million cattle are listed at risk.
1 official source cited
UN OCHA says Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher has released $6 million for South Sudan, $4 million for Zimbabwe and $3.6 million for Chad from CERF to act ahead of El Niño-driven drought, with Haiti also flagged for drier, warmer months.
1 official source cited
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center kept its El Niño Advisory in the 28 September 2026 ENSO update, reporting weekly Niño 3.4 at 2.2 °C, Niño 1+2 at 3.9 °C and a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event through the 2026-27 Northern Hemisphere winter.
1 official source cited
UN News reports FAO climate lead Kaveh Zahedi saying El Niño measures must be in place by February or March, while a forthcoming FAO analysis puts 2024 agrifood climate finance at $26.9 billion, down 10 per cent.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's August 2026 update keeps Bounkani and Tchologo at Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to January 2027, citing diesel up to 725 XOF/litre, 95,660 displaced people hosted by July, and updated seasonal forecasts pointing to below-average August–October rainfall.
1 official source cited
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center kept its El Niño Advisory in a 21 September 2026 update showing weekly Niño 3.4 departures of 2.1 °C, Niño 1+2 at 3.9 °C and a June–August RONI of 1.4 °C, with greater than 90% odds of a very strong event this fall and winter.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's August 2026–January 2027 outlook keeps Bounkani and Tchologo at Stress (IPC Phase 2), citing refugee arrivals rising from 85,630 in May to 95,660 in July, diesel at 725 XOF/litre and raised odds of below-average August–October rainfall under a strong El Niño.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's August 2026 update for Guatemala reports the Dry Corridor received 5-25% of normal rainfall in August, with maize losses above 50% and up to total for subsistence farmers, keeping the poorest households in Crisis (Phase 3, IPC) through January 2027.
1 official source cited
EUMETSAT says Copernicus Sentinel-3C lifted off from Kourou at 03:21 CEST on 15 September 2026 aboard a Vega-C rocket, securing ocean, land, ice and atmosphere observations — including El Niño signatures — into the 2030s.
1 official source cited
A FEWS NET agroclimatology post dated 14 September 2026 reports IRI odds above 70 percent of below-normal rain in northeastern South America, southern Chile and the Bolivian Altiplano for November 2026–January 2027, with NMME deficits of 1–4 mm/day in Colombia and Venezuela.
1 official source cited
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in an update prepared 14 September 2026, keeps its El Niño Advisory with weekly Niño 3.4 at 2.0 °C, a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event through winter 2026-27 and 55% odds of ENSO-neutral in April–June 2027.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's August 2026 Somalia update keeps a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) from October to January 2027, citing a moderate likelihood of extreme deyr flooding, Baidoa sorghum and maize prices up about 68 percent year-on-year, and just 404,208 people assisted in July.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's 11 September 2026 East Africa Seasonal Monitor reports preliminary maize yield deficits of about 28% nationally in Kenya and 43% anticipated in high-potential counties, while a well-established El Niño is expected to bring above-average October–December rains, with probabilities up to 90%.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET says Crisis (IPC Phase 3) hunger will persist across all nine Karamoja districts through January 2027 after the driest June-September on record, with crop losses of 50-75 percent and refugee settlements deteriorating during the October-January lean season.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET reports June–September kiremt and karan/karma rainfall deficits exceeding 50 percent of average across much of Ethiopia, with the meher harvest — over 85 percent of national crop production — possibly up to 30 percent below average and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persisting to January 2027.
1 official source cited
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center kept its El Niño Advisory on 10 September 2026, citing a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event in Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27 and a 75% chance of a historic October-December event at a 3-month RONI of +2.5°C or more.
1 official source cited
NASA says the Sentinel-6B satellite, launched last November and flying 30 seconds behind Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich, began delivering low-latency data on July 15 to sharpen hurricane intensity forecasts during what its scientists call a historic El Niño.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's August 2026 update keeps Toliara II and Amboasary Atsimo in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and expects the phase to spread across Madagascar's Grand South from October, citing harvests lasting one to three months instead of six, food inflation of 10.4 percent in June and El Niño-driven rainfall delays.
1 official source cited
UN OCHA, writing as the General Assembly convenes, says the WMO has confirmed a very strong El Niño running through late 2026 into early 2027, with up to US$100 million available from CERF and more than US$28 million already allocated for anticipatory action in seven countries.
1 official source cited
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center kept its El Niño Advisory on 8 September 2026, reporting weekly departures of 3.9 °C in Niño 1+2 and 1.8 °C in Niño 3.4 but only 0.1 °C in Niño 4, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event this fall and winter.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's August 2026 Zimbabwe update reports 439,500 MT of maize procured — 120 percent above last year — yet deficit-area retail prices of 0.46–0.57 USD/kg, 155,000 repatriations from South Africa, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected from October.
1 official source cited
UN News reports the WMO now sees a near-100% likelihood that El Niño lasts through February 2027, with the Niño 3.4 index reaching 2.6°C in weekly readings and subsurface anomalies above 8°C in parts of the Pacific.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's August 2026 update for Angola expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3)-aligned outcomes in four southern provinces from October to January 2027, with cattle in Cunene fetching 150,000 AOA (163 USD) a head and fuba prices forecast at 1,000-1,150 AOA/kg by January.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's August 2026 Mozambique outlook update expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through January 2027 in conflict-hit Cabo Delgado and northern Nampula, cites about 28,000 newly displaced people, and assumes a strong El Niño with rising odds of a very strong event from October 2026 into early 2027.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET expects Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes to expand across Zambia's south, west and east from October 2026 to January 2027, with the Food Reserve Agency buying maize at 347 ZMW per 50 kg toward a 500,000 MT target.
1 official source cited
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center kept its El Niño Advisory in its 31 August 2026 update, reporting weekly departures of +1.8 °C in Niño 3.4 and +3.5 °C in Niño 1+2, a May–July RONI of 1.0 °C, and a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event in fall and winter 2026-27.
1 official source cited
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports weekly SST departures of +3.2 °C in Niño 1+2 and +1.8 °C in Niño 3.4, a May–July RONI of 1.0 °C, and a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño from September–November through November–January 2026-27.
1 official source cited
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center held its El Niño Advisory on 13 August 2026, citing July values of +1.4 °C in Niño-3.4 and +2.9 °C in Niño-1+2, a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event in fall and winter 2026-27, and a separate 69% chance of a historic event in October-December.
1 official source cited
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event from September–November through November–January 2026-27 and a 69% chance of a historic event in October–December.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET expects El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to drive above-average October–December short rains in Kenya, easing pastoral Crisis conditions to Stressed while raising flood risk. Maize in the North Rift and west faces an estimated 15 percent yield loss.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's June 2026–January 2027 Latin America outlook says El Niño is bringing below-average rain and above-average heat across the region, with 3.0–3.49 million people in Haiti facing Crisis or Emergency outcomes and 4.0–4.99 million in Colombia expected to need food assistance.
1 official source cited
The IFRC says the Colombian Red Cross activated its drought Early Action Protocol in June 2026, targeting 2,400 people in Tolima and Cesar as forecasts show a more than 50% chance of below-normal rainfall from June to August.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET reports a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) through January 2027 in Akobo, Nyirol, Ulang and Nasir, citing conflict, record rainfall deficits under strengthening El Niño conditions, and red sorghum prices up 43 percent in Nasir.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET says Lesotho's 2026 maize crop will be 30 percent below last year and nearly 50 percent under the five-year average, with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions expected in southern regions through January 2027 as El Niño delays the next rainy season.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET reports that El Niño conditions and the canícula damaged Guatemala's primera maize crops, with much of the Dry Corridor recording only five to eight rain days between 20 June and 20 July, and the poorest households classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September.
1 official source cited
NASA Earth Observatory reports that PACE satellite chlorophyll maps show substantially lower phytoplankton abundance in the central equatorial Pacific in June 2026 versus neutral June 2025, as NOAA's CPC gives a 97 percent chance El Niño lasts into early spring 2027.
1 official source cited
The European Space Agency reports that its SMOS satellite, launched in 2009, is tracking the eastward shift of the western Pacific freshwater pool during the current emerging El Niño, and that researchers are building an ENSO-specific sea-surface salinity index to complement temperature indices.
1 official source cited
EUMETSAT says Copernicus Sentinel-3C is planned for launch later this year to replace Sentinel-3A, extending a mission measuring sea surface temperature, sea level, wind, waves and chlorophyll into the 2030s. Marine applications manager Estelle Obligis describes the preparations.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's July 2026 update for Colombia projects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in La Guajira and Chocó through January 2027 as a strengthening El Niño brings above-average heat and below-average rain, with annual food inflation at 6.83 percent.
3 official sources cited
FEWS NET expects Stressed (IPC Phase 2)-aligned outcomes in southern Angola from July to September, deteriorating to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October to January 2027, as El Niño rainfall deficits, a 5 percent diesel price rise and maize meal at 1,144 AOA/kg erode purchasing power.
1 official source cited
UN News reports that anticipatory action funding reached over three million people in southern Africa and 5.5 million in eastern Africa between 2023 and 2025, while FAO and WFP aim to reach 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries as El Niño is expected to intensify.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in northern Cabo Delgado through September 2026 and in southern and central Mozambique from October, with El Niño forecast to turn very strong by late 2026 and maize prices in Chókwe 35 percent above the five-year average.
3 official sources cited
FEWS NET's Asia Food Security Outlook for June 2026–January 2027 links a forecast below-average monsoon to a poor kharif harvest, with assistance needs peaking at 17.00–17.99 million people in Pakistan in December–January.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's July 2026 update for Zimbabwe expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to emerge in October in deficit-producing areas, with maize grain at 0.34–0.57 USD/kg there versus 0.22 USD/kg in surplus zones, and over 115,000 returnees recorded at Beitbridge.
1 official source cited
The UN World Food Programme says a strengthening El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity, lifting the total across 45 vulnerable countries from 225 million to 274 million, a rise of about 22 per cent.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity in Toliara II and Amboasary Atsimo from July 2026, spreading across Atsimo-Andrefana, Androy and parts of Anosy from October, with agricultural labour earnings running 20 to 40 percent below average.
1 official source cited
FEWS NET's July 30, 2026 West Africa Seasonal Monitor reports flood deaths of about 59 in Côte d'Ivoire, 13 in Ghana and 5 in Togo since mid-May, while April 1–July 25 rainfall reached only 30 to 90 percent of average in parts of the Sahel.
1 official source cited
The Copernicus multi-model ensemble initialised around 1 August projects a mean Niño 3.4 anomaly near 3.5°C for December 2026, with about 91% of members exceeding the 2015–16 record — though ECMWF cautions that absolute anomalies overstate the event against today's warm baseline.
4 official sources cited
The World Meteorological Organization says the 2026 El Niño is likely to strengthen further and peak around September–November, with model projections showing seasonal sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2.9°C in key monitoring regions.
2 official sources cited
WMO's latest monthly global seasonal climate update says a strong El Niño is developing and expected to strengthen from August through October, with multi-model forecasts pointing to sea-surface temperature anomalies above 2.9°C in key monitoring regions.
3 official sources cited
The Bureau of Meteorology's relative Niño3.4 index reached +1.94°C in the week ending 26 July, well past its +0.80°C threshold, while the Indian Ocean Dipole index touched positive territory for the first time this year.
2 official sources cited
Peru's ENFEN committee maintained its Coastal El Niño Alert in Comunicado N° 13-2026, saying a strong coastal event will most likely persist until April 2027 and that an extraordinary magnitude late in 2026 cannot be ruled out.
3 official sources cited
Japan's weather agency says El Niño conditions have persisted since spring 2026 and puts the probability of continuation through boreal autumn at 100%, with its NINO.3 index reaching +1.9°C in June.
3 official sources cited
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in effect and gives a 97% chance the event lasts into early spring 2027. CPC's weekly index has climbed steadily to +2.2 °C, and forecasters say the event could rank among the largest on record.
4 official sources cited
Indonesia's climate agency says more than half the country's land area faces below-normal rainfall this dry season, which peaks in August, and puts the odds of El Niño reaching at least moderate intensity at 98%.
2 official sources cited
The Philippine weather service formally declared El Niño with its first advisory of the 2026 event, reporting 19 provinces already in meteorological drought and more than 80% model probability that conditions persist until early 2027.
3 official sources cited
India's weather service cut its southwest monsoon forecast to 90% of the long-period average in its late-May update, assigning a 60% chance of a deficient season as El Niño develops with no offsetting help from the Indian Ocean.
4 official sources cited
China's National Climate Center says the tropical Pacific entered an El Niño state in May 2026 and sees a possible strong event by year-end, while Korea's KMA forecasts an above-normal-temperature summer with generally abundant rainfall.
4 official sources cited