IFRC Says El Niño's Asia Pacific Toll Will Be Felt Long Into 2027

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) said on 6 November 2026 that El Niño is now an unfolding humanitarian challenge across Asia Pacific rather than a forecast risk, and that its consequences for health, food security and livelihoods are expected to continue into 2027.

The statement, issued from Kuala Lumpur as world leaders gathered at COP31, said National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies across the region are strengthening preparedness while El Niño continues to drive drought, extreme heat, water shortages and other climate-related impacts. The IFRC described the risks as becoming increasingly clear and the pressure on already vulnerable communities as growing.

Water and health named as the leading concerns

According to the IFRC, water security is emerging as one of the most immediate humanitarian concerns in the region. The organisation pointed to declining rainfall, prolonged dry conditions and extreme heat affecting water sources in several countries, though it did not name individual countries or give figures in the statement.

The IFRC also linked rising temperatures to increased risks of heat-related illness and of climate-sensitive diseases, naming dengue and other vector-borne diseases. Those pressures, the organisation said, are falling on health systems it described as already stretched, which it argued underlines the need for stronger climate-resilient health services.

The IFRC said the effects of the event are expected to fall disproportionately on particular groups: people dependent on subsistence agriculture, residents of drought-prone areas, displaced populations, and small island developing states and communities affected by displacement. These, the organisation said, are often the groups with the fewest resources available to adapt and recover.

'The humanitarian consequences will be felt long afterwards'

Alexander Matheou, the IFRC's Regional Director for Asia Pacific, said the event is playing out differently from place to place but with a shared thread. "Across Asia Pacific, we are seeing the impacts of El Niño unfold in different ways, but a common concern is the growing pressure on communities that are already vulnerable," he said.

Matheou framed the current event as an indication of what may lie ahead. "El Niño offers a glimpse of the climate risks that communities may increasingly face in the future. While the weather event itself may peak in the coming months, many of the humanitarian consequences will be felt long afterwards," he said, adding that the task is "not only responding to climate hazards but helping communities cope with the longer-term impacts on health, food security, livelihoods and access to essential services."

The reference to a peak in the coming months is the only timing signal the IFRC offered on the event itself; the statement contains no index values or probability figures.

Regional coordination and anticipatory action

The IFRC said National Societies across Asia Pacific are sharing experiences, assessing risks and building preparedness jointly, with the federation providing technical assistance, readiness support, anticipatory action mechanisms and humanitarian financing. The stated aim is to help National Societies reach at-risk communities before humanitarian needs escalate — an approach consistent with the anticipatory action model that several agencies have adopted for this event.

"The impacts of El Niño do not stop at national borders, and neither should our response," Matheou said. "The more we learn from each other, support each other and work together, the stronger we become collectively in addressing this challenge and strengthening resilience across the region."

He also used the statement to press a broader case on investment. "As climate-related extremes become more frequent, we need to invest in preparedness, adaptation and local action before disasters strike," Matheou said. "The lessons from El Niño are clear: communities need the resources, support and capacity to act early if we are to reduce humanitarian impacts and build resilience for the future."

The full statement is available from the IFRC.