Floods in Somalia, False Starts in Kenya: FEWS NET Maps an Uneven East African Season

East Africa's September-to-December rainy season has begun unevenly, with heavy rain and localized flooding in Somalia and eastern Ethiopia set against a dry, late start across much of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, according to the East Africa Seasonal Monitor published by FEWS NET on November 13, 2026.

The assessment arrives on top of a weak June–September season. FEWS NET reports that poor rainfall, prolonged dry spells and above-average temperatures across that period produced below-average crop production in northwestern (north-rift) Kenya, Karamoja in Uganda, Sudan, South Sudan and Ethiopia's Kiremt regions.

A deficient June–September season

Using CHIRPS satellite-gauge estimates, FEWS NET puts June–September rainfall totals at generally 45–90 percent of the 1991–2020 long-term average across in-season cropping regions. In Kenya, the agency says Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu and Nakuru counties recorded substantial deficits during critical crop stages, and preliminary assessments point to national maize yield deficits of roughly 28 percent, with losses reaching up to 43 percent in high-potential production counties.

Elsewhere, FEWS NET describes dry and hot conditions from April through August in Uganda that hurt sorghum, delayed planting and reduced rainfed sorghum area in Sudan's Sennar, Al Jazirah, Blue Nile, North Darfur and North Kordofan states, and rainfall deficits in the unimodal eastern zones of Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity in South Sudan. In Ethiopia, the agency attributes damage to the Meher season to poor Kiremt rainfall, particularly in Tigray, eastern Amhara, Afar and eastern Oromia. Late-season improvement in parts of central and western Ethiopia was, in FEWS NET's assessment, insufficient to reverse the accumulated shortfalls.

Flooding in the east, false starts in the west

The October–December season opened with above-average rainfall across much of southern and central Somalia, southern and eastern Ethiopia and localized parts of eastern Kenya, FEWS NET reports, producing localized flooding and rapidly rising rivers in the Juba and Shabelle catchments. The agency records the Shabelle at Jowhar climbing from 2.48 metres on September 29 to 5.38 metres by the week ending October 14, approaching a bankfull level of 5.5 metres. In Kenya, seasonal rivers at Moyale reached bankfull within 24 hours of an estimated 133 mm of rain on October 28, and Tana River county saw localized flooding the same week.

Against those forecasts of a likely early onset and above-average rains, FEWS NET notes that much of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi instead had a delayed onset and a drier- and hotter-than-average September and October. Isolated rain triggered planting in several areas without accumulating enough to sustain germination. In Siaya, Kilifi and Kwale, false starts in late September and early October prompted premature planting followed by dry spells that FEWS NET says will likely require replanting. Most of eastern and southeastern Kenya has yet to plant, though the agency expects early- to mid-November rainfall to support planting and crop establishment in most areas.

Southern Somalia's above-average rain improved soil moisture after consecutive failed seasons, but FEWS NET cautions that subseasonal forecasts point to average to below-average rains across Somalia in mid- to late November.

Pasture recovery and the El Niño outlook

Pasture and surface water resources that had deteriorated sharply across pastoral areas are beginning to recover as the seasonal rains establish, FEWS NET says, though recovery is uneven. Northeastern Somalia remains a concern after successive below-average seasons and hotter-than-average conditions. Eastern Kenya is improving gradually, with eastern Garissa, Tana River and Lamu counties recovering after October's heavy rain.

FEWS NET attributes the expected enhancement of cumulative October–December rainfall to the strengthening El Niño combined with positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, with rain intensifying from November onwards and November the likely peak month. Most forecasts cited by the agency place the bulk of the rainfall from the second week of November across central Ethiopia, southern Somalia, much of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and southern South Sudan. FEWS NET stresses that spatial and temporal distribution remains uncertain and that episodic heavy rain would most likely raise risks of riverine flooding, flash floods and waterlogging. The IOD is expected to weaken slightly but stay positive, while El Niño is forecast to strengthen further and peak around December 2026, with conditions likely persisting into early 2027.