SASCOF Splits South Asia's Winter Rains as Very Strong El Niño Persists

The World Meteorological Organization has published the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum's seasonal assessment for October to December 2026, which divides the region into contrasting rainfall zones under the influence of what the agency describes as very strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific.

According to the WMO's account of the forum's consensus outlook, published on 14 October 2026, normal to above-normal rainfall is likely over northwestern South Asia and over parts of the eastern and southern portions of the region, including the island nations. Below-normal rainfall is considered likely across most of central and southern peninsular South Asia and over some parts of eastern South Asia.

A regional temperature signal

Alongside the rainfall picture, SASCOF expects normal to above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures over most of the region during the season, the WMO reports. The outlook area covers nine countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

The WMO notes why the October–December window matters for parts of South Asia that are often overlooked in discussions dominated by the summer monsoon. Southern India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives receive significant rainfall in these months, which the organization describes as critical for agricultural operations. Northeastern parts of the region, including Afghanistan, also take in a sizable share of their annual precipitation during the same period. The forum's winter outlook, the WMO says, is intended to meet demand for seasonal climate information covering these crucial winter rains.

El Niño strong, Indian Ocean Dipole neutral

The WMO states that the SASCOF outlook reflects the very strong El Niño conditions now observed over the equatorial Pacific, while neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean. Both are described by the organization as large-scale climate drivers known to influence climate variability across South Asia — a point worth keeping in view, since the state of the Indian Ocean can either reinforce or offset a Pacific signal in this part of the world. In this case the WMO reports the IOD as neutral rather than tilted in either direction.

The outlook also records that sea surface temperatures are above average in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and across most of the Indian Ocean. Looking ahead, the WMO says the latest forecasts from several climate models point to an increased likelihood of very strong El Niño conditions persisting through the coming October–December season, together with a continued likelihood that Indian Ocean Dipole conditions remain neutral.

The hedging in the forum's language is worth preserving: SASCOF frames its rainfall and temperature statements as what is likely, not as settled outcomes, and the model guidance is phrased as an increased likelihood of persistence rather than a certainty.

Who produced the outlook

The WMO describes the product as a consensus outlook, assembled by experts representing the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of all nine South Asian countries. They were joined by specialists from the WMO itself, the WMO Regional Climate Centre in Pune, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the UK Met Office, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the Climate Prediction Center.

That multi-institution structure is characteristic of the Regional Climate Outlook Forum model, in which national forecasters and international centres negotiate a single shared statement rather than issuing divergent national guidance for the same season.

The WMO's note gives no numerical probabilities for the individual rainfall or temperature categories, and no index values for El Niño or the Indian Ocean Dipole beyond the qualitative descriptions above. Readers tracking the underlying ocean indices can follow the broader run of agency assessments in our news archive, and the definitions of the terms used here are set out in the glossary.