FEWS NET Sees Below-Average Harvests Across East Africa's Best Cropping Zones

East Africa's main June–September growing season has left several of the region's most productive farming zones facing reduced harvests, according to the East Africa Seasonal Monitor issued on 11 September 2026 by FEWS NET. The same report forecasts a sharply wetter October–December season, which FEWS NET attributes to a well-established El Niño.

What the June–September season delivered

FEWS NET says poor crop production is expected across several unimodal cropping areas after extremely poor rainfall performance and prolonged dry spells. In Kenya, the agency anticipates poor harvests in the high-potential western counties it identifies as the North Rift — Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu and Nakuru — where moisture deficits arrived during flowering and grain filling. On yields, FEWS NET is explicitly provisional: preliminary assessments, it says, indicate national maize yield deficits of around 28%, while a 43% loss is anticipated across the high-potential counties.

In Uganda's Karamoja region, rainfall began in February, which FEWS NET describes as an extremely early onset against a typical April start; the agency says persistent hot and dry conditions from April through August are likely to weigh on sorghum production. In Sudan, FEWS NET reports that recent field missions by its key informants found planting delayed by up to three weeks, alongside a reduced area under rainfed sorghum, in Sennar, Al Gazirah, Blue Nile and parts of North Darfur and North Kordofan. Below-average production is expected in South Sudan, particularly in the eastern cropping zones of Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity.

For Ethiopia, FEWS NET expects a below-average Meher harvest across the Kiremt-growing regions, singling out Tigray, eastern Amhara, Afar and eastern Oromia. Slight late-season improvements are, in the agency's assessment, unlikely to substantially change outcomes for earlier planted crops already affected by prolonged moisture deficits, although later plantings may benefit.

The earlier March–May season produced mixed results. FEWS NET reports harvesting is complete across the bimodal regions of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, with production ranging from average to below average, and says outcomes hinged largely on planting timing and rainfall distribution. Crop statistics cited by the agency show average production in Bungoma and above-average production in Kakamega and Tharaka-Nithi.

Pasture and water

Pasture and surface water remain generally available in pastoral and agropastoral areas of eastern Kenya, much of Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia after above-average March–May totals, FEWS NET says, but rainfall cessation and persistent above-average temperatures are accelerating pasture drying and evapotranspiration. The agency reports significant deficits in pastoral areas of northeastern Ethiopia and in Kenya's Turkana county, where most surface water resources have dried up and distances to the nearest watering point have lengthened. Poor conditions persist in northern and northeastern Somalia after consecutive rainfall deficits. In Djibouti, FEWS NET reports severe pasture and water shortages, with some regions recording as little as 10mm of rainfall over 60 days and livestock deaths associated with thirst.

The El Niño-driven October–December outlook

FEWS NET expects El Niño to significantly enhance October–December 2026 rainfall across much of Eastern Africa, stating that the event continues to strengthen with a greater than 90 percent probability of persisting through early 2027. The report does not specify which ENSO index or averaging period underlies that assessment, so the probability should be read as the agency's own summary of "the latest outlooks" rather than a value tied to a named index.

The report's treatment of the Indian Ocean Dipole is dated in two places. FEWS NET describes the dipole as "positively neutral" at +0.25°C and expected to warm further, reinforcing the wet signal in the east; separately, in discussing confidence in an early onset, it refers to the neutral state of the Indian Ocean Dipole as of 6 September. No date is attached to the +0.25°C figure in the document.

Regional forecasts cited by FEWS NET, including an ICPAC probabilistic outlook, indicate a very high probability of above-average rainfall over southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia and eastern and central Kenya, with probabilities of up to 90%. An early onset is considered likely in parts of southern Somalia and eastern Kenya based on subseasonal forecasts as of 10 September, though the agency flags limited confidence on how widespread early rains will be. In western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, rainfall will likely be above average, but subseasonal forecasts point to below-average rains from mid-September to early October.

FEWS NET adds that the wetter outlook substantially increases the risk of flooding, waterlogging, landslides and infrastructure damage in flood-prone areas including the Juba, Shebelle and Tana river basins, and urban flooding in cities such as Nairobi, Mogadishu, Kampala and Addis Ababa, with excessive rainfall potentially disrupting planting and delaying harvests.