Côte d'Ivoire's North Held at Stressed Hunger as Refugee Numbers Near 96,000

Cross-border insecurity and rising fuel costs will blunt the seasonal relief normally delivered by the first harvests in northern Côte d'Ivoire, according to the Food Security Outlook for August 2026 to January 2027 published by FEWS NET. The agency expects the regions of Bounkani and Tchologo to remain in Stress (IPC Phase 2) through January 2027, while most of the country holds at Minimal (IPC Phase 1). The analysis draws on information available as of 18 August 2026.

Refugee arrivals and border pressure

FEWS NET identifies the continuing inflow of refugees, and the risk of incursions by non-state armed groups linked to the security crises in Mali and Burkina Faso, as the principal driver of insecurity along Côte d'Ivoire's northern border. Drawing on UNHCR figures, the agency reports that the number of forcibly displaced people hosted in the country rose from 85,630 in May 2026 to 95,660 in July 2026.

That inflow is expected to persist from August to September for as long as the Sahel security crisis continues, FEWS NET says, keeping Tchologo and Bounkani exposed. The agency notes that these two regions already host the largest concentrations of Burkinabè and Malian refugees, and that competition for income sources and pressure on host household resources will limit the usual seasonal improvement even as maize, yam and other food crops come in from August and September.

FEWS NET also reports that cross-border restrictions and Burkina Faso's suspension of livestock exports continue to constrain supply and keep meat prices high, with alternative logistics chains struggling to stabilise costs in urban centres in both the north and the south.

Fuel, prices and the macro picture

In August 2026, diesel rose from 700 to 725 XOF per litre, an increase of 3.57 percent, while super petrol moved from 875 to 905 XOF per litre, or 3.43 percent, according to FEWS NET. The agency describes this as the second increase since May, when petrol rose 6.7 percent and diesel 3.57 percent, and expects prices to keep rising. Higher fuel costs raise operating costs across the agricultural supply chain at precisely the moment harvests would normally push prices down.

Against that, FEWS NET points to a suspension of the 9 percent VAT on inputs and packaging used in fertiliser manufacturing, in force until 31 December 2026, which it expects to lower producers' costs and improve fertiliser supply. At national level, the agency cites an average GDP growth forecast of 6.4 percent over 2026–2027, supported by private-sector activity, accelerating oil output, the start of a mining project and international fundraising, with overall inflation contained around 1.9 percent — below the UEMOA convergence threshold of 3 percent.

Rainfall risk under a strong El Niño

FEWS NET has updated its assumptions to reflect a heightened risk of rainfall deficits in September and October, saying updated seasonal forecasts strengthen the probability of below-average rainfall totals over the August–September–October period. In the context of a strong El Niño episode, the agency states, the risk of an early cessation or poor distribution of rains is increased in unimodal zones, though crop impacts will depend on how precipitation is distributed in time and space. Its listed evidence sources for climate forecasting include NOAA, IRI, WMO and AGRHYMET.

Cocoa zones and alternative scenarios

In the western and south-western cocoa areas, FEWS NET expects Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes to predominate, with the scale of income improvement from September depending on the price set and the volumes marketed, following the sharp price drop seen during the second marketing campaign in March. In the mountainous west, including Tonkpi and Guemon, the agency projects improvement from Stress (Phase 2) to Minimal (Phase 1) from September as the main cocoa campaign opens.

Among the events that could change its projections, FEWS NET lists an early end to the rains in unimodal zones — which it says would tighten supply on major consumer markets including Abidjan and Bouaké — and a deterioration in security in Mali or Burkina Faso around Kayes, Sikasso and affected border zones. In that alternative scenario, the agency says Stress outcomes could spread, or some households already using coping strategies could fall into Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with Bagoué and Folon also potentially seeing more arrivals.