FEWS NET: Weak Monsoon Under El Niño Points to Thin October Harvests in South Asia

A forecast of below-average monsoon rainfall tied to El Niño runs through FEWS NET's latest regional assessment for Asia, which warns that a weaker rainy season will hold down the kharif harvest due from October and push millions of households in Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka further into market dependence over the coming winter.

The Asia Food Security Outlook, covering June 2026 to January 2027, summarises analysis from FEWS NET's individual country outlooks. The agency builds its projections by setting out assumptions about likely events and responses, then reading them against current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the following eight months.

Pakistan: needs peaking at up to 18 million

FEWS NET expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to persist across much of Balochistan and Sindh through January 2027, as poor households run down wheat stocks and turn to markets while facing high food prices, weak labour income and continued disruption to border trade. In Balochistan, the agency cites below-average monsoon rainfall and the associated kharif harvest, degraded rangeland conditions, high prices and trade disruptions with Afghanistan and Iran as the main constraints on food and income access.

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist across Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan through the projection period, according to FEWS NET, with Crisis outcomes expanding to more areas from October as wheat stocks deplete.

On production, FEWS NET says the kharif harvest is expected to come in below last year, driven by both below-average planted area and the anticipated below-average monsoon. Land preparation and planting were under way at the time of the report and were expected to conclude in late July or early August. The agency expects the weak monsoon to cause soil moisture stress in southern Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

Food assistance needs in Pakistan are estimated by FEWS NET to peak at 17.00–17.99 million people between December 2026 and January 2027, representing 5–10 percent of the total population. Although the 2026 rabi harvest is expected to improve national food availability, the agency judges that poor households will most likely exhaust wheat stocks earlier than normal and become market reliant from October.

Nepal: a lean-season peak, then a below-average rice crop

In Nepal, FEWS NET expects outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) across the northwestern hills and mountains from July to September as the lean season peaks, with some poor households facing outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Below-average labour and migration income is expected to constrain purchasing power.

The population needing food assistance is projected by FEWS NET to reach an annual peak of 1.5–1.99 million during the July to September lean season, concentrated in the northwestern mountains and hills. The agency notes that households there are still recovering from past earthquakes and that chronic food insecurity remains high.

From October, maize and rice harvests are expected to improve food access countrywide, along with livestock earnings and remittances during the October to November festive period. But FEWS NET cautions that the likely below-average monsoon is anticipated to reduce rice production and delay winter wheat planting.

Sri Lanka: costs outpacing wages

FEWS NET expects Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in Sri Lanka's plantation areas, western and northern coastal fishing zones, and urban and peri-urban districts through January 2027, with elevated food, fuel, transport and livelihood-input costs outpacing low wages. The agency links the pressure to continuing recovery from the 2022 economic crisis and Cyclone Ditwah.

Favourable July–September yala paddy harvests are expected to support Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in the intermediate and dry zones through September. From October to December, FEWS NET expects Stressed outcomes to spread through the dry zone as stocks exhaust and northeast monsoon rains bring flooding and landslides, before maha harvests restore Minimal outcomes in January.

FEWS NET estimates 1.0–1.49 million people in Sri Lanka will need humanitarian food assistance, with needs likely peaking from October to December.