FEWS NET: Mozambique's Centre and South Set for Crisis Hunger From November

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity is expected to emerge in central and southern Mozambique in November as household food stocks run down, according to the Food Security Outlook for October 2026 to May 2027 published by FEWS NET. The agency estimates that 1.5–1.99 million people will require humanitarian food assistance across the outlook period, with needs peaking during the January and March lean season. The analysis rests on information available as of 30 October 2026.

FEWS NET names two areas of greatest concern: conflict-affected districts in the north, and drought-prone semiarid areas of the south and centre. The agency also states that the full effects of the El Niño event are expected to emerge gradually, with the most severe food security impacts likely to materialise beyond May 2027 and to peak during the late 2027 to early 2028 lean season.

What the outlook assumes about El Niño

FEWS NET's scenario assumes the ongoing El Niño event reached "very strong" levels in September 2026, is expected to remain very strong through December, and to weaken from very strong to strong between January and March 2027. The outlook does not state which index — such as the ONI or Niño 3.4 — or which threshold value underpins that strength classification, and monitoring agencies do not all use the same criteria; among the evidence sources the report lists is NOAA Climate Prediction Center's October 2026 ENSO outlook. Readers wanting the definitional background can consult the glossary.

Below-average rainfall is expected for the October 2026 to May 2027 season, particularly in the south and centre. FEWS NET anticipates an erratic start with significantly below-average seasonal totals, raising the risk of drought and prolonged dry spells that it describes as typically five to 10 days longer than average, reaching up to 15 days in some areas; the report does not clarify whether that 15-day figure refers to total dry-spell length or to a further excess over normal. Temperatures are expected to stay above average through May 2027, and the November 2026–May 2027 cyclone season is judged likely to bring fewer than the normal number of storms making landfall.

October rainfall totals were generally up to 50 millimetres, with localised totals up to 100 mm, FEWS NET reports, citing CHC/FEWS NET data. Because the rainy season is typically not fully established until November across most central and southern regions and December in the north, the agency says October's deficits are not yet a major concern, while monitoring continues. September and October rains have left above-average pasture and water availability supporting favourable livestock conditions, though FEWS NET expects both to fall below average later in the projection period.

Harvests, prices and assistance

FEWS NET expects below-average maize planting nationally in 2026/27, with farmers limiting area planted rather than risking inputs, and a below-average 2027 national maize harvest — well below average in the southern and central regions, but close to average in the north.

Annual headline inflation eased from 7.48 percent in July to 6.31 percent in September 2026, with food inflation falling from 12.81 to 8.79 percent, the agency reports, while transport inflation remained elevated at 14.72 percent. Maize grain prices sit 30–35 percent below the five-year average and 20 percent below last year in central and northern Mozambique, but remain high in Maputo and the south after the poor 2026 harvest. FEWS NET projects maize prices around 10 percent above the five-year average through January/February 2027, easing toward average by April/May and staying below last year's levels through May 2027.

On assistance, FEWS NET reports that Food Security Cluster partners reached approximately 255,000 people in September 2026 across Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Sofala, Manica, Tete, Inhambane, Gaza, Maputo Province and Maputo City, with food assistance covering nearly 40 percent of monthly caloric requirements in conflict-affected areas. Separately, the agency states that 330,000 people are expected to receive assistance in the November–December 2026 cycle, which it characterises as approximately a 30 percent reduction from the previous number of beneficiaries; the outlook does not specify the earlier caseload against which that reduction is measured, and the September figure covers a different reporting basis. FEWS NET adds that WFP expects assistance in northern Mozambique to decline substantially as 2027 begins, without specifying whether that refers to the number of people reached, ration sizes or funding.

Where outcomes are projected

In the north, FEWS NET expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to persist from October 2026 to May 2027 in Chiúre, Meluco, Mocímboa da Praia and Palma in Cabo Delgado, and in the northern Nampula districts of Eráti and Memba. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected through December 2026 where assistance is delivered, including Macomia, Quissanga, Nangade and Muidumbe. IOM figures cited by the agency put cumulative conflict displacement in Cabo Delgado since January 2026 at over 34,000 people.

In the south and centre, Crisis outcomes are expected from November 2026 through March 2027 in districts including Chibuto, Chicualacuala, Chókwè, Mabalane, Mapai, Govuro, Panda, Magude, Buzi, Chibabava, Machanga, Doa and Mutarara, with some areas improving to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in April and May as a limited harvest begins.