FEWS NET: Famine Risk Persists in Four South Sudan Counties Into January 2027

FEWS NET's September key message update for South Sudan describes widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity in 24 counties at the start of what should be the main harvest period, and says a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) will persist in four counties — Akobo, Nyirol, Ulang and Nasir — through January 2027. The agency attributes the deterioration to a combination of conflict, El Niño-driven drought, worsening macroeconomic conditions and the erosion of household purchasing power.

Famine risk and the harvest outlook

According to FEWS NET, humanitarian assistance is expected to reduce the severity of outcomes to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) in 12 counties. Some populations are expected to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in hard-to-reach areas of Akobo and Nyirol in Jonglei, Nasir and Ulang, and likely Akoka in Upper Nile, through at least January 2027. The agency states that Famine (IPC Phase 5) would occur if conflict re-escalates and is sustained at levels similar to or higher than those seen in early 2026, cutting populations off from wild foods and assistance. FEWS NET also says concern remains high for extreme outcomes in Lafon, Eastern Equatoria, where it cites reports of hunger-related deaths after crop failure.

For the October–January main harvesting window, FEWS NET projects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in 40 counties and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in 32 counties spanning Jonglei, Upper Nile and parts of Unity, Warrap, Lakes and Northern Bahr el Ghazal. In the areas worst affected by drought and conflict, the agency expects households to gather minimal or no harvest, which it says will push the 2027 lean season to an atypically early start and raise assistance needs further.

Rainfall deficits and nutrition data

Severe rainfall deficits persisted through September across much of the country, FEWS NET reports, with the largest shortfalls in the east and southeast where cumulative rainfall is below 60 percent of normal. Quantitative crop-loss assessments tied to El Niño are not yet available, but the agency cites field and key informant reports of widespread crop failure in parts of Jonglei, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Lakes, Warrap, Unity, and Central and Eastern Equatoria. A partners' assessment in August in Lafon and the Greater Kapoeta areas confirmed crop failure, poor livestock body conditions and atypically early livestock migration driven by scarce pasture and water, while an early-September rapid assessment identified Aweil East and Aweil North as the most drought-affected counties in Northern Bahr el Ghazal.

On nutrition, FEWS NET says preliminary results from a mid-September rapid assessment point to exceedingly high acute malnutrition among displaced people at four sites in Warrap. Earlier SMART surveys conducted between June and September found global acute malnutrition at Critical thresholds (15–29.9 percent) in Akoka at 28.8 percent, Abyei at 23 percent and Pibor at 21.6 percent, and above the Extremely Critical level of 30 percent in Guit, at 36.2 percent.

Assistance, conflict and prices

WFP reached 1.7 million people with food assistance in August against a target of 2.2 million — roughly 20 percent of FEWS NET's estimated population in need. Between June and August, coverage averaged at least 25 percent of the population in 12 counties, including Ayod, Fangak, Pibor and Uror in Jonglei and Leer, Mayendit, Panyijiar and Rubkona in Unity. Among the famine-risk counties, distributions reached an average of 30–45 percent of the population in Akobo, Nyirol and Nasir in August, but only about 10 percent in Ulang. FEWS NET cites WFP's assessment that more than 1.0 million vulnerable people could lose access to life-saving food and nutrition assistance by October without additional funding.

More than 2.5 million people were displaced as of mid-September, including over 440,000 from Jonglei and Upper Nile, FEWS NET reports. Clashes between September 2 and 21 in Ulang, Ayod, Nyirol and Yei left more than 50 people dead and displaced 1,000, while intensified intercommunal conflict in September across Abyei, Warrap, Lakes, Jonglei and other areas killed 70 people and cost more than 100 cattle. The agency notes the dissolution of the transitional government of national unity on September 22 has heightened political tension.

The South Sudanese pound has depreciated 23 percent on the parallel market and 24 percent on the official market compared with September 2025, FEWS NET says, lifting import costs. In August the cost of the minimum expenditure basket rose by 14 to 33 percent in locations including Abyei, Pibor, Ayod, Bentiu IDP camp and Baliet town. South Sudan continues to host nearly 1.4 million returnees and refugees as of September 23.

The full update is available from FEWS NET. More ENSO-linked food security coverage is collected on our news page.