Diesel at 725 XOF and Rain-Deficit Risk Cloud Côte d'Ivoire's Harvest Start

Higher pump prices, a thinning livestock trade and updated seasonal rainfall forecasts are expected to blunt the usual relief that harvests bring to northern Côte d'Ivoire, according to the August 2026 food security update issued by FEWS NET. The analysis covers August 2026 to January 2027 and rests on information available as of 18 August 2026.

FEWS NET projects that most of the country will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity from August to September 2026, as maize, yam and other food crops come in and improve both own production and market supply. The two northern border regions of Bounkani and Tchologo are the exception: FEWS NET expects Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes there to persist through January 2027.

What the update says about rainfall and El Niño

FEWS NET has revised its assumptions to take in new seasonal forecasts. The agency states that the risk of rainfall deficits should sharpen in September and October, with an increased probability of below-average rainfall totals over the August–September–October window. FEWS NET frames this within what it calls a strong El Niño episode, saying the risk of an early cessation or poor distribution of the rains is raised in unimodal zones, while stressing that crop impacts will depend on how precipitation falls in time and space.

The update does not publish percentage probabilities, index values such as the ONI or Niño 3.4, a reference period, or the issue dates of the forecasts it draws on. It lists NOAA, IRI, the WMO and AGRHYMET as the sources behind its seasonal rainfall and temperature outlooks and its El Niño/La Niña probabilities. Readers seeking the numerical basis would need to consult those originating agencies rather than the FEWS NET text.

In its alternative-scenario annex, FEWS NET spells out what an early end to the rains in unimodal zones would mean: disrupted cereal production, constrained household stock rebuilding from September and October, and a sharp contraction of food supply on the large consumption markets of Abidjan and Bouaké. Poorly distributed residual rains, the agency adds, would dry surface water points prematurely and cut forage availability, increasing livestock mortality and triggering competition over resources between local farmers and transhumant herders. Under that scenario, affected zones would tip into Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Fuel, prices and the macroeconomic picture

According to FEWS NET, diesel moved from 700 to 725 XOF per litre, a rise of 3.57 percent, while super petrol went from 875 to 905 XOF per litre, up 3.43 percent. The agency describes this as the second increase since May, when petrol rose 6.7 percent and diesel 3.57 percent, and says prices are expected to keep climbing. Elevated fuel costs, in FEWS NET's assessment, sustain operating expenses across the agricultural supply chain and push urban market prices up just as harvests would normally pull them down.

One measure runs the other way. FEWS NET notes the suspension until 31 December 2026 of the 9 percent VAT on inputs used in fertilizer manufacturing and on the packaging used to condition them, which it expects to lower manufacturers' costs, improve fertilizer supply and raise the quantities applied on farms.

On the wider economy, FEWS NET cites a forecast average of 6.4 percent GDP growth over 2026–2027, supported by private-sector activity, accelerating oil production, the start-up of a mining project and international fundraising. Overall inflation remains contained near 1.9 percent, below the 3 percent WAEMU convergence threshold, despite the fuel price increase applied on 1 August.

Borders, refugees and cocoa

Continued refugee arrivals and the risk of armed group incursions, tied to the security crises in Mali and Burkina Faso, are identified by FEWS NET as the main driver of insecurity along the northern frontier. The number of forcibly displaced people hosted in Côte d'Ivoire rose from 85,630 in May to 95,660 in July, on UNHCR data presented by the agency. Cross-border restrictions and Burkina Faso's suspension of livestock exports continue to limit supply and hold meat prices high.

In the cocoa-growing west and southwest, FEWS NET expects Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes to predominate, with income gains from September depending on the price set and volumes traded after the sharp fall recorded in the second marketing campaign in March. In the mountainous west, including Tonkpi and Guemon, the agency projects an improvement from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from September as the main cocoa campaign opens. The full update is published by FEWS NET.