WMO Puts January–September 2026 at 1.47 °C Above Pre-Industrial as El Niño Peaks

The World Meteorological Organization has published its State of the Climate Update 2026, reporting a global average surface temperature for January–September of about 1.47 °C above the pre-industrial average and warning that a very strong El Niño is set to release additional heat and extreme weather well into 2027. The update was released on the opening day of COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, on 9 November 2026.

The WMO says the January–September figure is likely to rise through the end of the year because of the warming effect of El Niño, which the agency describes as intensifying since August and expected to be the strongest on record by December. The update also states that the past 12 years have individually been the warmest on record, with the past four occupying the top four places.

Heat in the ocean, and where it goes

According to the WMO, Earth's energy imbalance is rising and the climate system is accumulating heat at an accelerating rate, with the imbalance reaching its highest level since monitoring began as greenhouse gases trap heat and disturb the balance between incoming solar energy and outgoing energy. The agency notes that the ocean absorbs 90% of this excess heat and that 2026 is on track to be the tenth successive year of record ocean warmth.

The update adds that sea level is the highest on record and that sea-surface temperatures set monthly records during 2026. On land ice and water, the WMO reports that the long-term retreat of glaciers continues — the annual mass loss of ice in 2025, it says, would have filled five Olympic pools every second of the year — and that freshwater storage has been dwindling since 2014.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo framed El Niño's role in terms of redistribution rather than addition. "El Niño and indeed the state of the global climate in 2026 gives new meaning to the phrase off the charts. El Niño doesn't add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured. There is simply more heat available to release," she said.

Saulo also described the event as a "risk multiplier," saying that heatwaves, tropical cyclones and rainstorms "are intensifying faster than our historical baselines prepared us for." She said hundreds of millions of people have been exposed to extreme heat this year, and pointed to the ice and rock collapse and flash floods in Nepal as an illustration of compound risks in fragile, warming high-mountain terrain.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres, quoted in the WMO release, said: "We have entered a new age of climate extremes. A supersized El Niño is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change. Climate records keep falling. The human costs keep rising. And those least responsible are suffering first and worst." He called on leaders to cut emissions faster, accelerate a just transition from fossil fuels, and deliver finance and protection for vulnerable countries.

Early warning coverage and the next report

The WMO argues that forecasts underpinned by sustained observations from every part of the world are more important than ever for monitoring a rapidly changing climate. One indicator it highlights as positive: the number of countries reporting the existence of multi-hazard early warning systems rose from 56 in 2015 to 136 in 2025.

The agency attaches an important caveat to the publication. The update includes data, where available, only up to September 2026, and therefore does not reflect the most recent impacts of El Niño — a point that matters given the WMO's own statement that the event has been strengthening since August. A final State of the Global Climate 2026 report is due in March 2027, incorporating contributions from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, regional climate centres, United Nations partners and experts across the WMO community.

Further background on how the Pacific cycle operates is available in our science section, and earlier agency bulletins are collected in news.