FEWS NET Sees Crisis-Level Hunger in Zimbabwe's Deficit Districts by October

Zimbabwe's typical deficit-producing districts are expected to slide into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity in October, according to the July 2026 Key Message Update published by FEWS NET, the US-funded famine early warning system. The assessment, which covers July 2026 through January 2027, links the anticipated deterioration to households exhausting their own harvests early and turning to markets where cereal prices are already elevated.

FEWS NET expects Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes to persist through September across the same areas, with most households still able to cover basic food needs from the 2026 harvest alongside income from casual labour and other livelihood activities. Even now, however, the agency notes that poor households in deficit-producing zones cannot afford essential non-food items because of below-average incomes and high prices.

A two-speed grain market

The update describes a sharply divided national market. In typical deficit-producing areas — located in the south, east, west and extreme north — grain supplies remain low, with only limited farmer-to-farmer sales, and maize grain prices reported by key informants range between 0.34 and 0.57 USD per kilogram. FEWS NET says poor households in these areas are instead buying maize meal, which is widely available, stable in price, and generally affordable once the cost of milling unprocessed grain is taken into account.

In surplus-producing areas, the picture is the opposite. Markets are well stocked following an above-average 2026 harvest, and maize grain averaged 0.22 USD per kilogram — 30 percent below both the same period last year and the previous month, according to key informants cited by the agency.

Remittances, returnees and transport costs

FEWS NET expects cash and in-kind remittances to fall as Zimbabweans living in South Africa continue to return home amid what the agency describes as xenophobic-related social and economic attacks in South Africa. Southern parts of Zimbabwe, where a high proportion of households have depended on South African remittances, are identified as the most exposed.

The government of Zimbabwe reported more than 115,000 returnees passing through the Beitbridge Border Post between the end of May and the end of July, with a third of them using government assistance, FEWS NET says. The government, UN agencies and non-governmental and community-based organisations are mobilising resources and providing documentation support, food, transport, health services, temporary shelter and longer-term reintegration programmes for those returning.

Transport and fuel costs are adding to the squeeze on purchasing power. FEWS NET reports that petrol and diesel prices remain roughly 25 percent and 28 percent higher respectively than they were before the escalation of tensions in the Middle East in February 2026, despite marginal adjustments made in July by the Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority. Public transport fares are 50 to 100 percent above February 2026 levels, a burden the agency says weighs particularly on poor urban households. Prices for most non-staple cereal basic foods and other commodities, along with inflation and exchange rates, have remained relatively stable.

Government preparations for El Niño

FEWS NET reports that the government has put preparedness and mitigation plans in place to respond to El Niño over the coming year, noting that El Niño events in Zimbabwe have historically been associated with below-average precipitation. The measures described include boosting the national Strategic Grain Reserve to strengthen the state's capacity to meet likely increased humanitarian needs, and potentially permitting early grain imports by the private sector and individuals to augment national availability and moderate prices.

Other elements listed by FEWS NET aim to reduce vulnerability to poor rainfall: promoting the conservation agriculture programme known as pfumvudza/intwasa, distributing short-season and early-maturing seed varieties, encouraging drought-tolerant crops, expanding irrigated land, producing and stockpiling supplementary livestock feed to prevent animal losses, and improving access to finance and agricultural insurance. Some non-governmental and community-based organisations are also issuing their own mitigation and response plans and raising resources, the agency adds.

FEWS NET describes the Key Message Update as a high-level analysis of current conditions and of any changes to its most recent projection of acute food insecurity outcomes. Further background on how ENSO conditions propagate into regional food systems is available in our impacts section.