Zimbabwe Backs Six-Pillar El Niño Plan as Wheat Area Reaches 130,300 Hectares

Zimbabwe is heading into its November-to-March rainy season with a government mitigation plan in place and a forecast for below-average rainfall, according to the September 2026 Key Message Update published by FEWS NET, the famine early warning system funded by the United States. The agency expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes to emerge in October and persist through at least January across deficit-producing areas of Matabeleland North and South, Masvingo, parts of Manicaland and Midlands provinces, and the extreme north of the country.

FEWS NET attributes that deterioration to the seasonal depletion of household food stocks, which it describes as typical for this point in the year, combined with below-average income among poor households and high staple food prices. Together, the agency says, those factors constrain food access and produce consumption gaps.

A mitigation plan and a rainfall forecast

The 2026/27 seasonal forecast cited by FEWS NET indicates that El Niño is likely to drive an erratic start to the November-to-March rains and below-average rainfall across Zimbabwe, with above-average temperatures expected through at least January.

In September the government approved a six-pillar El Niño mitigation plan, FEWS NET reports. According to the agency, the plan covers strengthening the Strategic Grain Reserve, facilitating imports of grain and basic food commodities, supporting crop and livestock production strategies, expanding farmer finance mechanisms, and reinforcing coordination and early warning.

Markets: doubled prices and withheld grain

Retail maize prices in FEWS NET-monitored markets in deficit-producing areas stood at roughly double the levels seen in surplus-producing areas as of August, the agency reports, and are expected to rise further as demand grows, increasingly limiting market access.

Open market supplies remain constrained even though commercial maize grain purchases by the government and private sector rose 153 percent between April 1 and September 24 compared with the same period last year, FEWS NET says, citing the Agricultural Marketing Authority. Some farmers and traders are reportedly holding back grain in expectation of higher El Niño-driven prices later in the year and into 2027.

The government has announced higher producer prices for the 2026/27 season, lifting 2027 maize and traditional grain prices by nearly 20 percent and the 2026 winter wheat price by 15 percent, measures FEWS NET describes as intended to incentivise production and deliveries to the Grain Marketing Board. In September the Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority increased petrol prices by 5 percent and diesel by 7 percent, which FEWS NET says raises transport costs and adds further pressure to grain prices.

Fields, tobacco and livestock

Farmers appear to be adjusting their plans to the forecast, FEWS NET reports, with more emphasis on conservation agriculture plots known as Pfumvudza/Intwasa. Land preparation is under way in several areas, according to the September 24 weekly update from the Agriculture Development Advisory Service (ADAS) quoted by the agency. Input purchases on the market have been limited so far, which FEWS NET says likely reflects farmer caution given the El Niño outlook and high input prices.

Irrigated tobacco planting began on September 1, giving poor households some casual labour income in tobacco-growing areas. ADAS reported nearly 8,200 hectares of irrigated tobacco planted as of September 24, about 20 percent below the same point last year. Some growers preparing rainfed crops are switching to drought-tolerant seedling varieties, FEWS NET notes.

Winter wheat prospects are more favourable. The Ministry of Agriculture reports area planted above last year, with harvesting under way ahead of the rains. ADAS puts plantings at around 130,300 hectares — roughly 7 percent above last year, 31 percent above the four-year average, and 4 percent above the government's 2026 target. FEWS NET flags quelea bird infestations and wildfires as localised risks in some wheat areas.

For livestock, the agency says near-term risks are partially buffered by fodder preparation and reduced wildfire losses, but expects El Niño-related rainfall deficits to limit pasture and water regeneration from late 2026, with more severe effects during the 2027/28 lean season. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates 2.23 million cattle are at risk nationally this lean season, with supplementary feeding requirements of 405,000 metric tonnes against a deficit of 233,000 MT. Wheat farmers have been encouraged to keep stover for feed rather than burn it, and the Environmental Management Agency reported in late September that the national area burned by wildfires was 26 percent lower than at the same time last year.