Mozambique Faces Crisis Hunger as Conflict and El Niño Squeeze Harvests

Mozambique will see Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity in parts of the country through January 2027, driven first by armed conflict in the north and later by the lingering effects of weather shocks in the south and centre, according to a Key Message Update published by FEWS NET covering July 2026 to January 2027.

For the July-to-September period, FEWS NET expects Crisis outcomes to persist in conflict-affected areas of northern Cabo Delgado, where the agency says continuing insecurity is disrupting livelihoods, limiting income opportunities and restricting access to markets, leaving the worst-affected households unable to cover their basic food needs. Poor households are likely to reduce the size and frequency of meals, prioritise feeding children, and send family members to stay with relatives, FEWS NET says. Some districts hosting internally displaced people are expected to fall into Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!), a classification indicating that humanitarian assistance is propping up food consumption.

In southern and central Mozambique, FEWS NET anticipates Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes over the same months, as delayed second-season and post-flood harvests support food access — though households are still expected to struggle to meet essential nonfood needs.

A late harvest, then a late planting season

FEWS NET reports that the second agricultural season and post-flood activities are running behind schedule because seeds arrived late and flood waters have receded slowly, pushing back planting. Planting and harvesting are now happening at the same time, so vegetables are reaching local markets later and more slowly than usual, with imports from South Africa supplementing supply. The agency expects the drawn-out harvest to gradually improve food availability and seasonal income in most areas through at least October.

From October 2026 to January 2027, FEWS NET projects Crisis outcomes both in conflict-affected northern Cabo Delgado and in the southern and central regions hit by weather shocks in early 2026. There, the agency points to slow recovery, an anticipated late start to the main season, rising food prices and below-average income as factors that will erode purchasing power. Poor households are expected to cut meal frequency, turn to wild foods and undertake atypical labour migration.

El Niño expected to be very strong by late 2026

FEWS NET states that El Niño strengthened in July and is expected to become very strong by late 2026, without defining "very strong" or naming the index behind it. The classification in common use rests on the Oceanic Niño Index, the three-month running mean of sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region, with events reaching 2.0 °C usually described as very strong; NOAA's Climate Prediction Center publishes the index but no formal category of that name. CPC's weekly SST index file gave a Niño 3.4 anomaly of +2.6 °C for the week centred on 19 August 2026, and its separate diagnostic discussion of 13 August 2026 put the chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27 above 90 percent. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology and the Japan Meteorological Agency apply their own thresholds and averaging periods, so their reading of the same event need not match NOAA's. The most significant impacts are considered likely in the semi-arid provinces of Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane, followed by Sofala, Tete, Manica and southern Zambézia. Those areas are expected to see below-average rainfall, prolonged dry spells and above-average temperatures, which FEWS NET says will likely reduce agricultural activity. The area planted for the 2026/27 season is expected to decline, in turn cutting agricultural labour opportunities and household income from October to January. Northern Mozambique, and Cabo Delgado in particular, is anticipated to receive average rainfall.

Prices remain a central constraint. Maize grain prices in southern Mozambique declined seasonally in June, down 14 percent from May on improved post-harvest supplies, but both monitored southern markets stayed above the five-year average: in Chókwe by 35 percent, in Maputo by 25 percent. Against last year the two diverge — Chókwe was 20 percent higher, Maputo 13 percent lower. FEWS NET's own summary line describes prices as remaining above both last year's level and the five-year average, which holds for Chókwe but not for the Maputo figure the same paragraph reports. Central Mozambique saw stable maize prices, while northern prices fell by up to 10 percent — except in conflict-affected areas, where insecurity hampers market monitoring.

Conflict and assistance

Conflict and displacement were lower than in the same period of 2025, FEWS NET says, but localised violence escalated between May and July 2026, with attacks by non-state armed groups displacing approximately 28,000 people. That included nearly 870 people newly displaced in July across Ancuabe, Montepuez and Chiúre. FEWS NET attributes the temporary decline in displacement to sustained operations by joint security forces that have disrupted insurgent movements, and expects the improvement to help market access and allow households to resume typical livelihood activities, while cautioning that the security situation remains volatile.

On the response side, FEWS NET reports that Food Security Cluster partners reached 420,185 people with humanitarian food assistance in June 2026 — about 35 percent of the targeted population — mainly in Cabo Delgado, Gaza, Maputo and Sofala provinces. The assistance covered 40 percent of monthly caloric needs for 14,285 people displaced by attacks in Ancuabe under the Joint Response Program. Flood response operations had reached roughly 372,840 people in Maputo City and in Maputo, Gaza and Sofala provinces by the end of June, and 65,455 people received agricultural inputs in Cabo Delgado, Niassa, Gaza and Maputo provinces.