Ethiopia's Kiremt Rains Rank Among Driest on Record as Meher Harvest Falters

Ethiopia's main June-to-September rainy seasons have performed among the worst on record, and the shortfall is already translating into crop failure in parts of the north and east, according to a Food Security Outlook Update published by FEWS NET. The famine early warning organisation links the poor kiremt rainfall to El Niño and expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to persist across many drought-affected cropping and pastoral areas through January 2027, with some households likely to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The analysis draws on information available as of 27 August 2026.

A season ranked among the driest on record

FEWS NET reports that rainfall deficits exceeded 50 percent of average across much of the country during the June to September kiremt and the July to September karan/karma seasons, with what it describes as exceptional drought conditions across nearly all kiremt-receiving areas. Cumulative seasonal totals still rank among the driest on record for most of Ethiopia, the organisation says, despite moderate improvement since late July. Rainfall was less than 60 percent of average in eastern Tigray, northern Afar, northern Somali, Sidama and South Ethiopia, and parts of the East Hararghe lowlands saw little to no rain in July. The karan/karma season in Afar and northern Somali began three weeks late and remained erratic and well below average.

Western Ethiopia has fared better, with moderate to heavy rain in August and, in FEWS NET's assessment, only limited and localised crop losses. The organisation now expects the kiremt season to end early, by early to mid-September.

Meher planting delayed, some crops written off

Because the meher harvest accounts for over 85 percent of Ethiopia's crop production, FEWS NET expects the national outcome to be below average — with historical anomalies suggesting the harvest could be up to 30 percent below average. Planting, which is typically complete by the end of August, had reached just 9 percent in South Ethiopia and 13 percent in Sidama as of early August. In lowland areas of East and West Hararghe, central and eastern Tigray and northeastern Amhara, FEWS NET anticipates little to no meher production, with dried and wilted crops likely to be fed to livestock. Some farmers along the Tekeze River and in eastern Tigray have replanted twice, and most crops remain at vegetative or early development stages. Maize has dried in many parts of the Hararghes and sorghum is severely stunted.

The belg season also underperformed: July zonal reports cited by FEWS NET put belg production 31 percent below average in East Hararghe and 35 percent below average in West Hararghe. Agricultural labour wages are beginning to fall atypically as reduced field activity suppresses demand, the report notes.

In pastoral zones, FEWS NET says pasture in Afar is extremely poor at a time when it should be lush, water points across Afar, northern Somali and eastern Oromia are near-dry, and drought-related livestock deaths — particularly among less drought-tolerant cattle — are likely to continue. Conflict in Western Tigray, Gojjam, Wello and along the Sidama–Guji border is separately disrupting markets and livelihoods.

Prices, assistance and the coming rains

Annual headline inflation rose to 15.3 percent in July, its highest in a year, FEWS NET reports citing the Ethiopia Statistical Service. Maize in Sekota market in Amhara was 62 percent more expensive than a year earlier and 94 percent above the five-year average. Humanitarian food assistance is constrained in Amhara and Tigray: about 310,000 people were reached in Amhara in July, roughly 54 percent of them internally displaced, while aid in Tigray resumed in July after a June suspension and reached approximately 922,000 people. In East Hararghe, the Hararghe Catholic Secretariat with Joint Emergency Operation support assisted around 188,000 people across seven woredas.

Looking ahead, FEWS NET expects the strengthening El Niño together with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to bring a slightly early and above-average October to December season, with elevated flooding risk and a 50 percent or higher likelihood that rainfall falls among the wettest one-fifth of recorded seasons. Heavy rain and flooding are considered likely in southern and southeastern pastoral areas. The organisation cautions that while deyr/hageya rains should improve pasture and water from October, depleted herds and below-average productivity after successive poor seasons will most likely limit gains in household food access. The October meher harvest is expected to support a temporary shift to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in central and southern areas where rainfall was relatively better.