Ambovombe Floods and a Frozen Fuel Price: FEWS NET Updates Madagascar's Outlook

FEWS NET's Food Security Outlook Update for Madagascar, covering August 2026 to January 2027, keeps two districts of the Grand South in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and projects that classification to spread across much of the region from October, as below-average July-August harvests run out early and a strengthening El Niño event threatens the rains that would normally start the next season. The analysis draws on information available as of August 18, 2026.

According to FEWS NET, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in Toliara II and Amboasary Atsimo through September, with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes continuing elsewhere in the Grand South through January 2027. From October, the agency expects Crisis conditions to expand into several areas of Atsimo-Andrefana and Androy and parts of Anosy.

Harvests that last months instead of half a year

FEWS NET describes the July-August cassava and sweet potato harvests as below average after erratic and below-average rainfall, providing relief it expects to last only one to three months rather than the typical six. Once those stocks are exhausted by October, the agency says, poor households will lean more heavily on markets and wild foods at a moment when purchasing power is already constrained.

Citing SISAV, FEWS NET reports that drought damaged between 15 and 50 percent of maturing cassava and maize in parts of Androy, Anosy and Atsimo Andrefana. Agricultural labor demand is running below typical levels, pushing wages down. Looking ahead, the agency expects labor earnings to be 20-40 percent below average during the lean season, and anticipates livestock prices falling sharply on distress sales and deteriorating animal body conditions.

An unusual wet episode compounded the picture. FEWS NET reports that four consecutive days of heavy rainfall in Ambovombe District — 40-50 mm, or roughly 10 percent of an annual total that is typically less than 400 mm — caused localized flooding, damaged the remaining tuber harvest, destroyed food stocks and reportedly killed around 200 cattle. The agency notes the livestock losses were localized and are not expected to significantly affect broader market supply, but says they will further limit affected households' ability to cope.

Prices, the currency and a capped fuel price

FEWS NET reports that annual food inflation accelerated from 6.8 percent in January to 10.4 percent in June, while headline year-on-year inflation was 8.6 percent in June, slightly below 8.7 percent in May. The Central Bank of Madagascar raised its policy rate from 12.0 to 12.5 percent, and the ariary has depreciated gradually since June, weakening by 0.7 percent in August on the back of the current account deficit and demand for foreign currency.

Invoking an energy state of emergency, the government suspended the automatic fuel price adjustment mechanism, capping fuel at April levels. FEWS NET calls this stability "artificial and fiscally costly," generating arrears to fuel distributors and pressure on public finances and on JIRAMA, and warns that localized fuel shortages or informal rationing may persist in remote areas of the south and southeast. Even with the cap, imported rice rose 20 percent in Toliara between June and July, and local rice rose 8 percent.

El Niño and the 2026/27 season

FEWS NET expects the strengthening El Niño event to delay the start of the 2026/27 rainfall season and bring below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures to the south, delaying planting, reducing area planted and cutting labor income during the November-March lean season. Below-average production would be a second consecutive poor season, further eroding coping capacity.

In the Grand South-East, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist, with Vondrozo and Ikongo deteriorating to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October; FEWS NET estimates nearly half of households there will have inadequate food consumption. Areas hit by cyclones Fytia and Gezani are expected to remain Stressed, with destroyed cash crop plantations needing three to five years to recover. Based on the May-June IPC acute malnutrition analysis, FEWS NET says no Grand South district is projected to exceed the Serious threshold of 10-14.99 percent global acute malnutrition. The full update is published on the FEWS NET site; background on the wider pattern is available in our impacts section.