WMO: Strong El Niño Expected to Intensify, With Above-Normal Temperatures for Much of the World

The World Meteorological Organization said on 31 July that the strong El Niño now underway in the tropical Pacific is expected to intensify further, tilting the odds toward above-normal temperatures across much of the globe and reshaping rainfall patterns through the end of the year.

The update, headlined "Strong El Niño expected to intensify; much of world faces above-normal temperatures and major changes," covers the August–October 2026 season. It projects that sea surface temperature anomalies in the closely watched Niño 3.4 region of the central Pacific will peak around September–November 2026, before declining slightly by January 2027. Model projections cited in the release indicate seasonal-average anomalies could exceed 2.9°C in key monitoring regions — figures that, if realised, would place this event in rare company. Readers new to the terminology can find an explainer in the science of El Niño.

Confidence has hardened since June

The trajectory of the WMO's own guidance shows how quickly certainty has grown. In its June update, the agency assessed an 80% likelihood of El Niño conditions during June–August 2026 and put the probability of continuation until at least November 2026 at 90% or higher. Five weeks later, the language has shifted from likelihood to expectation: the event is established, strong, and forecast to strengthen.

The July release also flags a second climate driver coming into play. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole — a pattern of relatively warm water in the western Indian Ocean and cooler water near Indonesia — is forecast to develop. When a positive IOD coincides with El Niño, the two patterns have historically reinforced each other's effects on rainfall in parts of Africa, Asia and Australia.

Where the rain shifts

The WMO's regional outlook for August–October follows the broad footprint familiar from past strong events, described in more detail in our guide to global impacts. Wetter-than-normal conditions are favoured for the Greater Horn of Africa, southern Europe and southeastern South America. On the dry side of the ledger, the outlook points to below-normal rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, southern Australia and parts of the Caribbean.

These are probabilistic shifts rather than guarantees — a tilt in the odds, not a script. But for governments and humanitarian agencies, the value of the outlook lies precisely in that lead time.

"A window to anticipate risks"

That was the framing chosen by WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, who emphasised the unusual backdrop against which this event is unfolding. "El Niño developing against unprecedented ocean heat provides governments a window to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold," she said.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres struck a starker note: "El Niño is strengthening – adding fuel to a planet already experiencing scorching heat domes and record hot seas."

The reference to ocean heat matters for interpretation. Because the global ocean is already at record warmth, absolute sea surface temperature anomalies during this event sit on top of an elevated baseline — a point forecasters at several agencies have raised when comparing 2026 to historical benchmarks.

What happens next

The WMO's El Niño/La Niña Update is issued roughly quarterly, and the next edition is likely in September 2026 — close to the projected peak window. In the meantime, national agencies are publishing more frequent guidance: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center updates monthly, as do Japan's JMA and the Philippines' PAGASA, while Australia's Bureau of Meteorology publishes fortnightly climate driver updates.

For a strong event, the period from August through November is when regional impacts typically become tangible — dry-season stress in Southeast Asia, shifting storm tracks, and the first heavy-rain risks on South America's Pacific coast. The WMO's message on 31 July was that the time to prepare for those outcomes is now, while the event is still building rather than after it peaks.