FEWS NET: El Niño Rainfall Deficits Compound Hunger From Haiti to Guatemala's Dry Corridor

FEWS NET says a combination of conflict, weather shocks and macroeconomic instability will keep acute food insecurity elevated across Latin America and the Caribbean through January 2027, with El Niño conditions expected to deliver below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures for the whole of the projection period. The assessment appears in the agency's regional Food Security Outlook for June 2026 to January 2027, which summarises its country-level analyses.

According to FEWS NET, rainfall deficits are compounding with elevated fuel and fertiliser prices to reduce smallholder yields and cut demand for agricultural labour. The agency expects harvests in Central America and the seasonal lift in incomes around the Christmas holiday to improve food access later in the year, but says needs will remain high across much of the region.

Haiti and Venezuela carry the heaviest caseloads

FEWS NET projects that between 3.0 and 3.49 million people in Haiti will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes over the eight-month window, with the peak in the number of people in need expected in November, ahead of the winter harvests. Emergency outcomes are anticipated at area level in and around the Port-au-Prince Metropolitan Area, with internally displaced persons and very poor urban households in the communes of Port-au-Prince, Cité Soleil, Croix-des-Bouquets, Cornillon and Ganthier identified as of highest concern. The agency says humanitarian assistance is expected to remain insufficient to cover the scale of need.

The spread of insecurity into agricultural areas and commercial corridors is a central driver in FEWS NET's analysis. It singles out Artibonite, described as the country's main agricultural basin, and notes that restrictions on the RN1, RN2 and RN3 routes are keeping transport costs high and limiting market supply. Cultivated area remains below average, and the agency says the likely intensification of an El Niño episode in the second half of 2026 raises the risk of rainfall deficits and below-average yields for the autumn and winter cropping seasons.

In Venezuela, FEWS NET attributes a sharp increase in needs to back-to-back earthquakes of magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 on June 24, and estimates that 3.0 to 3.49 million people require humanitarian food assistance in the immediate aftermath. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in La Guaira, Distrito Capital (Caracas), Yaracuy, Carabobo and Aragua. Direct physical damage is expected to run to billions of US dollars, with overall economic losses likely higher, though the agency notes post-disaster assessments are ongoing. Elsewhere in the country, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist: FEWS NET anticipates monthly inflation remaining below 15 percent, annual inflation close to 550 percent, and a gap of around 45 percent between the official and parallel exchange rates.

Colombia's drought-and-flood split

FEWS NET expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to persist through January 2027 in La Guajira and Chocó. In La Guajira, the agency says below-average rainfall and negative soil moisture anomalies are expected to worsen as El Niño develops, hitting livestock and crop production and water availability. In Chocó, the constraint is the opposite one — above-average rainfall earlier in the year, continued flood risk, disrupted river transport and localised insecurity, particularly affecting poor Indigenous and Afro-Colombian households in remote riverine areas. Nationally, FEWS NET expects the population in need of assistance to climb gradually to between 4.0 and 4.99 million people.

Central America's lean season and a prolonged canícula

FEWS NET expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to continue in the most vulnerable parts of the Dry Corridor and in parts of Alta Verapaz and the Western Highlands in Guatemala, citing consecutive years of crop losses, early depletion of stocks and prolonged market dependence. A strong El Niño event is expected to bring below-average rainfall, above-average temperatures and prolonged dry spells.

In Guatemala, the agency estimates 2.0 to 2.49 million people will need food assistance between June and September, hitting the upper end of that range in July and August, before easing to 1.5 to 1.99 million from October to January as harvests arrive — late and below average, in FEWS NET's assessment. In Honduras, Crisis outcomes have emerged in the Dry Corridor and the Pacific coastal region of Choluteca and are expected to last through September, with a prolonged canícula dry spell further reducing labour demand; FEWS NET estimates 500,000 to 749,999 people in need, peaking between June and August.