UNICEF Counts 347 Million Children in El Niño's Path This Quarter

More than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries and territories are expected to experience unusually wet or dry conditions between October and December 2026 because of El Niño, according to new analysis by the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) summarised by UN News. UNICEF says that exposure raises the risk of extreme floods and droughts, and UN News reports the 2026-2027 event is forecast to become one of the strongest on record.

The UN News report states that in September the Niño 3.4 index — described in the article as a measure of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures used to track El Niño — surpassed the readings logged during previous events, including 1997 and 2015. The report does not give an index value, specify an averaging period, or attribute that comparison to a named monitoring agency, and no figure for it is published in the piece.

What UNICEF says is at stake for children

"For children, El Niño is far more than a weather pattern. It can mean increased displacement, malnutrition, water shortages and disease outbreaks," said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell, quoted by UN News. "Children are also at risk of schools closing, while families could experience added financial hardship."

UNICEF's assessment sets out a split pattern. Colombia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines are among the places the agency expects to see drier conditions that could lead to drought and water scarcity, with consequences for displacement and acute malnutrition. Across the Greater Horn of Africa, UNICEF points instead to wetter-than-normal conditions that could bring river and flash flooding, spread waterborne diseases and disrupt schooling. In crisis and conflict-affected countries including Afghanistan, Chad, Yemen and Sudan, the agency says El Niño can be a direct threat to survival by compounding hunger and malnutrition.

UNICEF adds that 1.1 billion children — nearly half the world's children — are already exposed to at least three overlapping climate-related hazards such as drought, extreme heat or floods, and that as extreme weather becomes more widespread, children could face greater risks of family separation, violence, exploitation and child marriage.

Papua New Guinea reports early effects

UN News describes Papua New Guinea as a country where impacts are already visible. El Niño conditions have been present there since mid-2026 and are forecast to peak between October and December. The government declared the event in June, set up a dedicated task force and approved a supplementary budget of 112 million; the report does not specify the currency.

An estimated 1.2 million people require direct food relief, with water shortages, crop losses, dwindling food reserves and higher prices already reported, UN News says. Schools are being disrupted, and concerns are growing over health, nutrition and bushfires. The largest impacts on agriculture and food security are expected from November. Remote, mountainous terrain and difficult logistics have complicated responses to earlier droughts in the country, according to the report.

Early action and a regional meeting

Asia and the Pacific is expected to bear a particularly large share of the exposure, with some 190 million children — more than half the global total identified by UNICEF — living in areas forecast for unusually wet or dry conditions over the October-to-December window.

The World Food Programme is urging governments in the region to strengthen social protection systems that can expand quickly. "A flood, drought, or sudden economic shock can wipe out a family's progress in a matter of days," said Samir Wanmali, WFP Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific. "Social protection systems that are inclusive, nutrition-sensitive and ready to expand during a crisis can prevent a temporary shock from becoming a lasting setback."

Among the figures UNICEF cites, every $1 invested in disaster risk reduction and prevention can save up to $15 in recovery costs, while less than one per cent of humanitarian funding currently goes to anticipatory action.

UN News also cites analysis published in May by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), which used the 2015-16 event as a reference point: more than 70 per cent of Southeast Asia's land area experienced drought then, with more than 200 million people exposed to severe drought at the peak. UN News reports that this time the pressures come alongside tighter government finances, elevated debt and continuing economic and supply chain uncertainty.

A regional El Niño exchange is due to begin next week in Bangkok, bringing together governments, meteorological experts, UN agencies and frontline practitioners to compare emerging impacts with lessons from past crises. Background on how the pattern propagates is available in our science section.