Lesotho's Maize Harvest Falls Near 50% Below Average, FEWS NET Reports

Lesotho's 2026 maize harvest will come in sharply below normal, but steady imports from South Africa should keep markets supplied and prices stable, according to a Key Message Update published by FEWS NET covering July 2026 to January 2027. The famine early warning system expects Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes to persist across the Southern Lowlands, Senqu River Valley and Mountain regions through January 2027, while the Northern Lowlands and Foothills remain at Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

A harvest split between north and south

FEWS NET assesses that national maize production will be below average countrywide, though the picture varies by region. Surplus-producing areas recorded average production, while the southern lowlands, the Senqu River Valley and the mountains suffered losses of around 50 percent. In total, FEWS NET expects maize output to fall 30 percent below last year's level and nearly 50 percent below the five-year average.

The harvest itself is running late. FEWS NET reports that heavy rains in April and May caused waterlogging that restricted field access and delayed harvesting, pushing the maize harvest into August, later than usual. Despite the shortfall, the agency does not anticipate supply shortages, attributing this to consistent maize imports from South Africa that are expected to offset the domestic deficit.

According to FEWS NET, household food stocks are likely to run out atypically early — by September — which will increase reliance on markets at a time when purchasing power is under pressure from localized above-average staple food prices, falling remittances and reduced labor opportunities.

El Niño and the 2026/27 season

FEWS NET links the outlook for the coming agricultural season directly to El Niño. The agency states that the October 2026 to March 2027 rainy season is expected to start late and be well below average, given that the El Niño event will most likely persist through at least early 2027. Elsewhere in the update, FEWS NET refers to the October 2026 to April 2027 rainy season in the same terms.

The consequences FEWS NET sets out include declining soil moisture and rangeland conditions, which would constrain planting and crop development and weaken livestock body conditions. Households that depend on livestock for income are identified as particularly exposed to reduced earnings as a result.

Labor, migration and livestock trade

FEWS NET reports that harvest-related labor opportunities have already declined and are expected to keep falling. The heavy April–May rainfall delayed maize harvesting as well as winter crop land preparation and planting, and the anticipated late start to the 2026/27 season under El Niño conditions is expected to prolong the shortfall in agricultural work.

Cross-border income is also expected to weaken. FEWS NET attributes an anticipated decline in labor migration opportunities in South Africa and associated remittances to ongoing anti-migrant incidents and increasingly restrictive migration policies that limit employment access for Basotho migrants and prompt migrant workers to return to Lesotho. The combination of thinner domestic agricultural labor and falling remittances is expected to squeeze household income across the projection period, especially for poor households.

One livestock-sector development runs the other way. A Foot-and-Mouth Disease outbreak first detected in February 2026 spread to every district except Mafeteng and Quthing before being largely contained, which FEWS NET credits to sufficient government interventions; reported cases have declined since May 2026. The outbreak disrupted livestock livelihoods and trade, particularly wool and mohair export sales. FEWS NET says the recent suspension of restrictions on those exports should improve market access, with income expected to recover before October as outstanding payments are disbursed.

Prices

Staple food prices are stable across most Lesotho markets, sitting below last year's levels but above the five-year average, and FEWS NET expects that stability to hold through the projection period. The agency credits carryover stocks, consistent supplies from South Africa and increased consumption of own-produced food among farming households. Fuel prices fell in July 2026, with gas 93, gas 95 and diesel 50 down 8, 9 and 14 percent respectively compared with June, according to FEWS NET.

For background on how ENSO shifts regional rainfall, see our science section.