Kenya's Pastoral Areas Set for Relief From Strong Short Rains — With Flooding the Trade-Off

Kenya's pastoral regions are expected to move out of Crisis-level food insecurity between October and January as an unusually strong short rains season replenishes rangelands, but the same rainfall is forecast to bring flooding, according to the July 2026 Key Message Update published by FEWS NET covering July 2026 through January 2027.

FEWS NET attributes the expected above-average October–December short rains to a strengthening El Niño combined with an anticipated positive Indian Ocean Dipole. The agency says improved rangeland resources should lift livestock productivity across most pastoral areas, allowing poor households to meet their minimum food needs — though it adds that those households will still depend on coping strategies to cover essential non-food needs.

A hard dry season before the rains arrive

In the near term, FEWS NET expects pastoral areas to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September. Seasonal dryness and above-average temperatures are projected to erode pasture, browse and water availability, pushing trekking distances up and prompting livestock migration from August. Declining animal body conditions and milk output would in turn cut household milk consumption and sales income, driving consumption gaps and unsustainable coping, the agency says.

Current conditions are described as mixed. FEWS NET reports pasture, browse and water in fair condition across most pastoral areas, with livestock body conditions fair to good, but milk production below average in most places because of limited herd sizes — between 16 and 50 percent below average in Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana. As of late July, vegetation greenness stood at 70–80 percent of the long-term mean across most areas, while most surface water points were classified as Watch (50–100 percent of the long-term median) or seasonally dry (10 percent or less of the long-term median).

Trekking distances diverge sharply by county in FEWS NET's assessment: roughly 10–40 percent longer than average in Wajir, Samburu, Turkana and Mandera, but 10–50 percent shorter than average in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit and Tana River. In Turkana, the agency notes that resources are depleting faster than usual because of limited off-season rainfall — which typically falls between June and September — and that livestock movement toward and across the Ugandan border is happening earlier than normal.

Mandera is the exception to the expected improvement. FEWS NET projects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist there into January because of slow recovery from the failed 2025 short rains.

Maize losses in the grain belt

The March–May long rains produced mixed results, which FEWS NET links largely to the timing of rainfall. In southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas, harvesting of maize, sorghum, millet and pulses is under way and nearly finished in places, with near-average production expected and household food availability improved. Those marginal agricultural areas are projected to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January.

The picture is different in the unimodal medium and high potential zones of the North Rift and western Kenya, where FEWS NET reports the maize crop is under acute water stress after below-average rainfall and prolonged dry spells since April. The agency expects the deficit to deepen given forecast El Niño-driven dryness through September, with production in these key grain regions likely to be substantially below average — preliminary estimates point to a 15 percent maize yield loss. Combined with persistently high fuel costs, FEWS NET says this will likely keep upward pressure on staple food prices.

Refugee settlements and government preparations

FEWS NET expects the Kakuma, Dadaab and Kalobeyei refugee settlements to remain in Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) through January, with humanitarian food assistance reaching more than 600,000 refugees — 82 percent of the settlements' refugee population — preventing worse outcomes. The agency flags a credible alternative scenario in which assistance is not sustained past September; in that case, it says, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes would likely occur.

On flooding, FEWS NET reports that the government of Kenya has begun preparations for the forecast October–December El Niño rains through a coordinated national framework led by the National Disaster Risk Management Authority and overseen by an Ad Hoc Cabinet Committee on El Niño Preparedness and Response. Measures listed include public awareness campaigns, infrastructure and drainage work, evacuation logistics and shelter planning, and agriculture and public health interventions, with NDRMA coordinating a National El Niño Contingency Plan involving ministries, county governments, humanitarian and development agencies and the private sector.