FEWS NET: El Niño's Worst Hunger Arrives in 2027, Long After the Rains Fail

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) published the first in a planned series of El Niño Special Reports on 6 October 2026, arguing that the heaviest food security consequences of the current event will not arrive while the rains are failing, but during the lean seasons that follow — largely across 2027, and in Southern Africa as late as the 2027/28 lean season.

FEWS NET says the 2026/27 El Niño emerged in June 2026 and strengthened rapidly, reaching very strong levels — defined in the report as an El Niño index of 2 degrees Celsius or more — in September 2026. Very strong events are uncommon, the agency notes, having occurred only seven times since 1950, most recently in 2015/16. FEWS NET draws a comparison with the 1997/98 event for its rapid intensification, and notes that the current event is also expected to coincide with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole from October to December, as 1997/98 did. The report cites NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecast of a greater than 90 percent probability of a very strong El Niño through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, with El Niño remaining the most likely ENSO phase into spring 2027.

Why the hunger peak lags the rainfall shock

The report's central framing is a timing argument. Agricultural labour is hit immediately by poor rains, FEWS NET explains, but harvests, livestock births and milk, and livestock sales come later — so early depletion of food stocks produces an earlier or harsher lean season months after the rainy season ends. Two consequences follow, according to the agency: an El Niño forecast is an early warning signal that gives governments and humanitarians time to respond before acute food insecurity materialises, and the dissipation of El Niño does not mean its food security effects are over.

FEWS NET also signals, with what it calls relatively low confidence given the long lead time, a forecast transition to La Niña in mid-to-late 2027, which it says should be prepared for because it would bring a different set of rainfall impacts.

Where concern is highest

FEWS NET rates its level of concern as high for unimodal East Africa and for Southern Africa, describing El Niño as the primary driver of high food assistance needs in both regions in 2027.

In unimodal East Africa, the June-September 2026 season was substantially below average, with the deepest deficits in northern Sudan at 45 percent of normal or less. Greater Upper Nile and Central and Eastern Equatoria in South Sudan recorded totals below 60 percent of average, and FEWS NET says South Sudan and Karamoja are heading for their driest year on record. Acute food insecurity is expected to be most severe between March and August 2027 across Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan and Karamoja.

For bimodal East Africa, where concern is rated moderate to high, FEWS NET expects above-average rainfall from the El Niño and positive IOD combination — analog years point to 150 percent of average or more in many areas — with flood risk concentrated along Somalia's Shabelle and Juba rivers. The agency says that while it is not the most likely scenario, the potential for flooding on the scale of 1997/98 underpins its assessment of a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in southern Somalia.

Southern Africa faces a late onset, below-average rainfall, prolonged dry spells and above-average temperatures from October 2026 to March 2027, according to USGS and NOAA forecasts cited by FEWS NET. The region enters the season after a cereal harvest nearly 10 percent above the five-year average, which FEWS NET says buffers near-term prices — a contrast with 2015/16. Even so, the agency expects widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, peaking in the November 2027-March 2028 lean season.

Concern is rated moderate in West Africa, where some Sahelian locations saw rainfall more than 40 percent below average and Chad is flagged as the largest El Niño contribution, and moderate in Latin America and the Caribbean and in Pakistan.

Global supply

FEWS NET reports that global maize, wheat and rice output has changed little on balance across strong and very strong El Niño years since 1980, falling at most 3.9 percent year-on-year in 1987/88. The USDA projects 2026/27 production of those three crops 2.7 percent below last year — still the second-largest crop on record. Indirect risks, FEWS NET says, run through regional maize trade in Southern Africa and through imports in West Africa and Yemen. The full special report will be followed by a second in late 2026 and a third in early-to-mid 2027.