Guterres Says El Niño Is 'Inside the House' as WMO Models Point to Ocean Anomalies Above 2.9°C

The UN weather agency said on Friday that El Niño is strengthening and is expected to intensify from the following month, according to a report published by UN News on 31 July 2026. The assessment draws on the World Meteorological Organization's latest monthly global seasonal climate update, which describes a strong El Niño developing and expected to gain force during the August-to-October period.

WMO's update, as summarised by UN News, points to above-normal temperatures across much of the world, wetter conditions in some regions alongside heightened drought risk in others, and tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures that are projected to stay warmer than average. The agency framed the outlook as a window for early action and decision-making rather than a description of events already under way.

What the models show

The headline number in the WMO update is an ocean one. Multi-model forecasts cited by the agency indicate that expected anomalies in seasonal-average sea-surface temperature will exceed 2.9°C in "key monitoring regions". That is a probabilistic expectation drawn from a spread of models, not a measurement, and the UN News account — the only source for it here — names neither the index it refers to nor the regions or averaging period it applies to. WMO's own monthly update is the reference point for that detail.

El Niño events warm the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and shift the atmospheric circulation that distributes rainfall around the tropics, which is why a single ocean signal translates into a patchwork of wetter-than-usual and drier-than-usual outcomes in different places. WMO's stated expectation of divergent regional rainfall — more in some areas, less in others — follows that pattern. Readers can find background on the mechanism at /science/.

Two UN assessments of the risk

UN Secretary-General António Guterres set the forecast against what he described as an already stressed planet. "El Niño is strengthening, adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas," he said in remarks carried by UN News. He added: "El Niño is not just on our doorstep; it is inside the house and turning up the heat, and this is only a warm-up act."

Mr Guterres also linked the situation to fossil fuel use, saying that coal, oil and gas are "fanning the flames of this crisis" and that expansion must stop. "More coal, oil and gas will lead to a more combustible future," he said. "Unless we act to protect people and tackle the root cause of the crisis, the dangers will become deadlier still. The warm-up act is over. We cannot afford to wait for the main event."

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo put the emphasis on what forecasts can and cannot do. "El Niño is one of the most closely monitored climate phenomena in the world, but forecasts in themselves do not prevent hazards, people do," she said. Ms Saulo noted that the event is developing against a backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures, and said governments and communities have a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold. "The decisions we make today will shape the impacts we experience tomorrow," she said, adding that WMO and its members are committed to getting credible and relevant climate information to those who need it most.

How other agencies read the same event

WMO's global update is a synthesis of contributing models rather than an index reading, and this article rests on a secondary account of it. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which issues the official United States ENSO status, publishes the underlying numbers directly: its weekly sea-surface temperature index file gave a Niño 3.4 anomaly of +2.6 °C for the week centred on 19 August 2026, and CPC's ENSO diagnostic discussion, issued separately on 13 August 2026, had an El Niño Advisory in force, with a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. The two are consistent in direction, but they are not the same quantity — CPC reports a weekly anomaly in one named region, WMO a seasonal average across unspecified monitoring regions. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology and the Japan Meteorological Agency apply their own thresholds and averaging periods again, so their classification of this event need not match either.

Coordination and early warning

WMO said it is stepping up coordination, climate information services and early warning support for those likely to be affected. According to the UN News report, that effort is aimed at governments, humanitarian agencies, climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture and health, and vulnerable communities.

UN News describes the document as WMO's monthly global seasonal climate update, so the August-to-October window reported here is the agency's view at the end of July and is subject to revision in subsequent issues. For how forecast confidence evolves through the seasonal cycle, see /faq/.