Honduras: FEWS NET Holds Dry Corridor at Crisis Hunger as Lean Season Stretches Past October

Poor households in Honduras's Dry Corridor and along the Gulf of Fonseca will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through October, according to a Key Message Update published by FEWS NET covering September 2026 to January 2027. The agency attributes the outcome to El Niño-related crop losses, high staple food prices and elevated living costs, which together are reducing food and income access and stretching the lean season beyond its usual end.

FEWS NET expects most households elsewhere in the country to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Delayed and below-average primera harvests are likely to push the lean season atypically into mid-October, the agency says, with smallholders who lost production in the Dry Corridor and the Gulf of Fonseca most exposed.

A partial recovery expected from November

From November through January, FEWS NET anticipates that most poor households in the two affected zones will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The agency links that expected improvement to the arrival of delayed primera harvests and to seasonal income from coffee and sugarcane work, melon and watermelon harvests, and salt extraction in southern Honduras.

That improvement is not forecast for everyone. FEWS NET says the worst-affected households — those with the largest losses of staple and cash crops, livestock, fishing or aquaculture, and who cannot take up typical seasonal agricultural labor — are likely to see limited or no seasonal gains and are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Rainfall arrived late, and unevenly

Late September rains brought only limited relief from cumulative drought impacts, FEWS NET reports, while producing localized flooding in western Honduras that damaged infrastructure and disrupted livelihoods. In parts of Santa Bárbara, including the municipality of Las Vegas, floodwaters accumulated near rivers and streams.

The distribution of rainfall was highly uneven. FEWS NET says many southwestern areas of Copán, Lempira and Intibucá received below 60 percent of average September rainfall, and parts of Choluteca received less than 30 percent of average. The agency notes that in many rainfed subsistence areas of the Dry Corridor, below-average primera harvests are not expected to materialize until October. Along the Gulf of Fonseca, above-average sea surface temperatures continue to reduce fish availability for artisanal fishers and constrain shrimp production, raising operating costs and squeezing incomes.

Postrera planting has been repeatedly delayed. FEWS NET reports that authorities advised farmers to hold off planting because of insufficient rainfall, and that the Centro Nacional de Estudios Atmosféricos, Oceanográficos, y Sísmicos (CENAOS) warned the window for maize planting would narrow if rains did not arrive before late September. Many farmers postponed planting, cut cultivated area, switched to shorter-cycle or less water-intensive crops, or skipped planting entirely. While recent rain may allow some late planting, FEWS NET says delayed crop establishment and continued El Niño rainfall deficits are likely to reduce rainfed postrera yields.

Prices and inflation compound the shortfall

Input costs are a further constraint. FEWS NET puts urea prices 48.1 percent above August 2025 levels and 51.8 percent above the five-year average, limiting what poor households can invest in postrera production after a weak primera season.

On the consumption side, tighter domestic maize supplies and delayed harvests are keeping staple prices high at a time when market dependence is lasting longer than usual. FEWS NET reports August white maize prices 15.4 percent above last year and nearly 39 percent above the five-year average, with red bean prices 18.5 percent above the five-year average.

Fuel costs add to the pressure. The agency reports August diesel prices 51.5 percent above a year earlier and 44.5 percent above the five-year average, with gasoline 34.2 percent above last year and 29.4 percent above the five-year average. Transportation inflation ran 15.8 percent above last year and food inflation 5.8 percent, while headline inflation reached 6.2 percent in August.

The full update is available from FEWS NET. Related reporting on the region is collected in our news archive.