South Sudan: FEWS NET Flags Famine Risk in Four Counties as El Niño Dries the Season

FEWS NET says four counties in South Sudan face a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) through January 2027, in a Key Message Update covering July 2026 to January 2027 that attributes the deterioration to armed conflict, record rainfall deficits linked to strengthening El Niño conditions, and a worsening macroeconomy.

According to the FEWS NET update, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes remain widespread as the lean season peaks in July and August. The agency names Akobo and Nyirol in Jonglei and Ulang and Nasir in Upper Nile as the counties carrying famine risk, and reports that some households in those counties are already facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). FEWS NET states that the risk would be realised — that Famine (IPC Phase 5) would occur — if conflict re-escalates and is sustained at levels similar to or higher than those seen in early 2026, isolating populations from wild foods and food assistance for a prolonged period. Of particular concern, the agency says, are households in remote locations with limited or no access to basic health services that have lost livelihood assets.

A recent partner assessment in Akobo West cited by FEWS NET found continuing food shortages, heavy reliance on wild foods, and a Global Acute Malnutrition rate measured by Mid-Upper Arm Circumference of 22.3 percent, above the Extremely Critical threshold of more than 15 percent.

Record rainfall deficits

FEWS NET reports that strengthening El Niño conditions are driving below-average rainfall, soil water deficits and poor crop growth conditions across much of South Sudan. The agency states that current rainfall deficits rank as the driest on historical record and are expected to remain below average for the season. Combined with above-average temperatures, the deficits are stressing crops and pasture, which FEWS NET says is visible in below-average vegetation health in Eastern Equatoria, northern Central Equatoria, Lakes, Unity, southern Jonglei and northern Upper Nile.

Field monitoring, key informants and partner assessments have confirmed germination failure, crop wilting and delayed planting in parts of Upper Nile, Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Warrap, as well as in Mundri, Tambura and Nagero in Western Equatoria and the Kapoetas and Lopa/Lafon in Eastern Equatoria, according to the agency. FEWS NET adds that early above-average rainfall in February and March is sustaining relatively better pasture and livestock conditions in central Jonglei and southern Upper Nile, while pastures are deteriorating more rapidly in the pastoral Kapoetas, where livestock body conditions are fair to poor.

The agency expects the arrival of main harvests in September and October to partially ease food consumption deficits through January, but says this will likely be insufficient to offset expected declines in food assistance, leaving Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes across most of Jonglei, southern Upper Nile and parts of Unity, Warrap, Lakes and Northern Bahr el Ghazal.

Conflict, assistance and prices

FEWS NET reports renewed fighting between government and opposition forces in July, with clashes in Walgak (Akobo) and Panyikang on July 5, Waat (Uror) on July 6, Nasir on July 3 and 14, and Lankien (Nyirol) on July 13. Cumulatively these killed more than 100 people, disrupted markets and crop production, and displaced at least 7,000 people, the agency says. Clashes between SSPDF and UPDF forces in Kajo-Keji on July 14 displaced over 10,000 people. Intercommunal violence tied to cattle raiding also intensified: attacks in Tonj North, Tonj South, Tonj East and Twic in Warrap between July 3 and 13 caused 74 deaths, the loss of more than 200 cattle and the displacement of 40,000 people, while attacks in Jur River, Wau Town and Raja in Western Bahr el Ghazal killed 12 people, raided 40 cattle and displaced 5,000.

Humanitarian food assistance remains critical, FEWS NET says, noting that WFP reached nearly 875,000 people with in-kind and cash assistance in June despite the fragile security environment and funding shortfalls. Distributions are expected to hold outcomes at Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) through September in 12 counties, including Leer, Mayendit, Panyijiar and Rubkona in Unity; Ayod, Duk, Canal/Pigi, Fangak, Uror and Twic East in Jonglei; Pibor in the Greater Pibor Administrative Area; and Abyei. July distributions are temporarily on hold in Duk following a deadly attack on a humanitarian convoy on June 29 and in Akobo West because of insecurity, while distributions in Baliet remain more permanently paused after past looting. In Nasir, FEWS NET confirmed the mid-June distribution of a 21-day ration per person in several hard-to-reach areas after the Matar–Nasir corridor reopened.

On markets, the agency reports fuel prices rose 5-20 percent between June and July 2026 in Rumbek Centre, Wau, Aweil Centre, Bor South and Juba, and were 60-130 percent above February 2026 levels. Red sorghum per malwa (3.5 kilograms) was 10-32 percent higher in June in Rumbek Centre, Rubkona, Gogrial East and Aweil Centre; Juba prices rose a further 9 percent between the first and second weeks of July; and a rapid assessment in Nasir found a 43 percent increase between June and July.