FEWS NET: Karamoja Crop Losses of 50-75% Hold Crisis Hunger Into January

FEWS NET expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity to persist across all nine districts of Uganda's Karamoja sub-region through January 2027, and says refugee settlements nationwide will slide into the same classification during the October-January lean season. The assessment appears in the agency's Food Security Outlook Update for August 2026 to January 2027, based on information available as of 31 August 2026.

A failed second half of the unimodal season

According to FEWS NET, Karamoja's March-September rainy season began early and strongly, but the June-September stretch was the driest on record. The agency reports that cumulative rainfall between June and late August ran 200 mm below average across most of the sub-region and 300 mm below average in parts of Kaabong, Kotido and Nakapiripirit, with dry spells coinciding with critical stages of crop development. Vegetation greenness stood at 60-80 percent of the seasonal average across Karamoja and parts of southern Uganda in late August.

Rapid assessments cited by FEWS NET point to crop losses of approximately 50-75 percent across much of Karamoja, with main-season cereal and pulse production described as extremely poor or failed in most areas. The agency expects household food stocks to stay notably below average even during October-November, when availability would normally peak, leaving households heavily market-dependent. FEWS NET says some worst-affected households may face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, and that crisis-level coping — foregoing medical care, withdrawing children from school and selling productive assets — is expected to continue.

Above-average October-November rainfall associated with El Niño conditions is expected by FEWS NET to lift pasture and water availability, support livestock productivity and open agricultural labour and off-season cropping opportunities, aided by government-planned distributions of short-cycle and drought-tolerant seeds. The agency is explicit that these gains are likely only to moderate, not eliminate, consumption deficits.

August nutrition surveys, which FEWS NET notes coincided with food distributions, found global acute malnutrition measured by mid-upper arm circumference below 9.9 percent in most districts, except Nabilatuk (10.5 percent) and Kaabong (12.1 percent). Citing the IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis, FEWS NET says GAM is expected to remain Critical in Kotido and Kaabong between November 2026 and February 2027, linked to poor WASH conditions and disease outbreaks tied to forecast above-average off-season rains.

Assistance reach and refugee settlements

FEWS NET reports that government and partner assistance expanded significantly in Karamoja during August, with a one-off general distribution of 20 kg of maize flour and 10 kg of beans per household covering 27 percent of minimum daily kilocalorie requirements for a month. The Office of the Prime Minister reported that distributions reached roughly 210,000 households, or 1.05 million people, by mid- to late-August. About 9,400,000 kg of the planned government assistance not distributed in July-August is expected in September, and FEWS NET says WFP is expected to distribute full monthly rations to approximately 70,000 people in Karamoja between September and October.

In refugee settlements, FEWS NET says WFP assistance covers 30-100 percent of food needs by vulnerability category, with roughly 33 percent of refugees receiving some support as of August, and 86,235 individuals re-included in distributions between March and late July. Most northern settlements and Kiryandongo are already in Crisis (IPC Phase 3); Western region settlements and Lobule are at Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) with assistance preventing worse outcomes. FEWS NET expects all settlements to reach Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between October and January as first-season stocks deplete and prices rise, with limited land access — particularly in northern camps — constraining production. The agency flags a credible alternative scenario in which assistance is reduced or discontinued after December because of budget shortfalls.

Bimodal areas, livestock and prices

FEWS NET expects Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to persist through January in bimodal parts of the Northern, Eastern and Western regions, with some worst-affected populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Strong El Niño conditions are expected to bring above-average October-December rainfall, but the agency says waterlogging and flooding are likely to offset the benefits, leaving December-January harvests near average. Flooding is considered likely in Palorinya, Adjumani and Nakivale settlements, complicating assistance deliveries and raising waterborne and mosquito-borne disease risk.

On markets, FEWS NET cites Uganda Bureau of Statistics figures showing headline inflation at 4 percent in July, up from 3.7 percent in June and the highest since September 2025, driven partly by fuel costs. Food crop and related inflation rose to 1.6 percent from 0.0 percent, though staple prices in rural producing areas generally remain near or below five-year averages. In the Ankole region, FEWS NET reports distress sales of cattle normally worth about 3 million UGX for around 700,000 UGX, amid Foot and Mouth Disease quarantines in Ruhaama and Rushenyi and an anthrax-related quarantine in Sheema following five suspected deaths in July.