Full Silos, Empty Markets: FEWS NET on Zimbabwe's Stalled Grain Trade and El Niño

Zimbabwe harvested an above-average maize crop in 2026, but FEWS NET says the grain is not reaching the districts that need it. In its Food Security Outlook Update for August 2026 to January 2027, the US-funded monitoring service projects that acute food insecurity will worsen through January 2027, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes emerging from around October in the worst-affected deficit-producing areas as households run down their own stocks and turn to markets where prices are already high. The analysis draws on information available as of August 31, 2026.

A record procurement season alongside lean-season prices

The contrast is stark in FEWS NET's own market figures. Citing an Agricultural Marketing Authority update presented at the Crops Working Group Meeting of August 27, the report says roughly 439,500 MT of maize had been purchased by government and commercial buyers — 120 percent more than at the same stage last year. The Grain Marketing Board bought 137,665 MT of that, a 321 percent increase on the previous year, replenishing the National Strategic Grain Reserve at a producer price of 365 USD per metric ton.

Yet in deficit-producing areas monitored by FEWS NET, including Hwange, Tsholotsho and Gwanda, open market retail maize remained at peak lean season levels of 0.46–0.57 USD/kg. In surplus-producing districts such as Gokwe South, Zvimba, Chegutu and Makonde, grain was trading seasonally low at 0.29–0.34 USD/kg — still above the 0.23–0.29 USD/kg recorded at harvest in April and May. Traditional small grains were more stable, at 8–10 USD per 17.5 kg bucket in southern producing areas and 12–14 USD in northern areas that do not typically grow them.

FEWS NET attributes the gap to weak movement of grain out of the Mashonaland Provinces, high transport costs, and reports that some farmers and traders are speculatively holding stock in anticipation of El Niño-driven price rises later in the season and into 2027. The agency has revised its assumptions accordingly: market supply of staple grain is now expected to fall below average despite near-average national cereal stocks, putting upward pressure on prices. FEWS NET also judges that maize import restrictions are likely to be relaxed to allow more private sector imports in response to the forecast El Niño.

Remittances, repatriations and lost seasonal income

Southern Zimbabwe faces a second squeeze on purchasing power. FEWS NET reports that remittances, already below average, have fallen further following xenophobic attacks in neighboring South Africa. As of August 16, about 155,000 Zimbabweans had been repatriated from South Africa since May, an increase of roughly 40,000 since the end of July. Lost jobs, closed businesses and restricted access to public transport among those who remain are also reducing casual labor, self-employment and informal cross-border trade, and cutting the flow of low-cost goods that channel supplies.

Seasonal wild foods are another shortfall. FEWS NET notes limited to no sale of Mopane worms across most southern areas — atypical for this time of year — with numbers reportedly depressed by disrupted reproductive cycles following the 2023/24 El Niño-induced drought. The agency expects December and January harvesting, consumption and income from Mopane worms to be significantly below normal, partly because of the forecast El Niño compounding the earlier damage.

Where conditions are expected to shift

Water and pasture remain fair to good across most high-rainfall areas after above-normal 2025/26 rains, FEWS NET says, but are deteriorating seasonally in semi-arid parts of Matabeleland North and South, Masvingo, Midlands, Manicaland and the extreme north. Seasonal rivers and streams are drying, borehole and weir levels are falling, and in the worst-affected areas key informants report households scooping riverbed sand for water. Poor pasture is already worsening cattle body conditions, and FEWS NET expects distress cattle sales to yield below-average income.

In deficit-producing areas, the agency projects Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes shifting to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in October and persisting through at least January, with households moving from reversible coping strategies toward asset sales. Stressed outcomes are expected to emerge around September or October in less productive communal areas inside surplus regions, while Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are likely to hold through January 2027 in the surplus-producing Mashonaland Provinces.