Zambia's Lean Season Set to Widen Stressed Hunger as Maize Stocks Run Down

Zambia is expected to remain largely food secure through September 2026 on the back of a record maize supply, but pockets of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) hunger in the south and west will persist and then widen once the lean season begins in November, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) in its Food Security Outlook Update covering August 2026 to January 2027. The agency states the analysis rests on information available as of August 25, 2026.

FEWS NET attributes the current stress to two overlapping pressures: below-average harvests in localized areas, and government restrictions on livestock movement imposed to curb Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD). Together, the agency says, these are reducing income from cattle sales and from related labor, leaving poor households able to cover minimum food needs but short of what they require for essential non-food expenses. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes remain widespread elsewhere, supported by stocks from the 2026 harvest and above-average maize market supply.

A record supply and a state buying price

The 2026 crop marketing season runs from August to October. FEWS NET reports that the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) set its purchase price at 347 ZMW per 50-kilogram bag — close to the 2025 price, but 15.6 percent above the July national average market price and well above open market offers of 220 ZMW per 50 kg, which the agency says came mostly from the Millers Association of Zambia.

The FRA initially delayed buying because maize moisture content stayed above the 12.5 percent threshold considered unsuitable for long-term storage. Once levels fell, all 1,749 FRA depots opened for procurement at the end of July, targeting at least 500,000 metric tons. FEWS NET expects the programme to support producer incomes and push maize prices up after the sharp post-harvest fall, but anticipates renewed price declines once the target is met and above-average supplies return to the local market.

Prices had already dropped steeply. FEWS NET records a 12.5 percent fall in the national average retail price of maize grain between May and June 2026, with breakfast and roller meal prices down by nearly 9 percent and below June 2025 levels. Record availability, carry-over stocks and FRA reserves are expected to cap prices through at least January 2027.

Cattle disease narrows a key income stream

Alongside the FMD restrictions in Southern Province, FEWS NET flags a Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) incursion in Namwala District. Zambia's Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock has sent experts to the affected areas and imposed an additional movement restriction. Because livestock underpin livelihoods in Namwala, the agency says these controls are likely to limit market access, delay or prevent sales and raise transaction costs, reducing households' ability to convert livestock into cash. FEWS NET expects outbreak risk to stay elevated through January 2027 in cattle-producing areas of the Western and Southern provinces, with surveillance, vaccination campaigns and movement restrictions continuing.

What the El Niño assumption rests on

FEWS NET describes the ongoing El Niño as "very strong" and expects it to bring delayed and below-average rainfall in the 2026/27 season, particularly in southern and western Zambia, constraining planting, cultivation, agricultural labor opportunities and income into at least early 2027. Readers should note the update does not attach an index value, a reference period or a classifying agency to that "very strong" label. In its annex of evidence, FEWS NET lists a single climate source — the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's ENSO diagnostic — described as qualitative and characterised as an "ongoing and strengthening" El Niño. No other forecast centre, model plume or quantified seasonal rainfall outlook is cited, so the rainfall assumption should be read as FEWS NET's most likely scenario rather than a settled projection; the agency itself notes it revises assumptions as new evidence arrives.

From October 2026 through January 2027, Stressed outcomes are expected to reach several districts in the center and north as stocks decline and market reliance rises. A fishing ban from December to January is expected to add pressure in affected livelihood areas. In Choma, Namwala, Itezhi-Tezhi and Mumbwa, FEWS NET projects a small proportion of poor households will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, with consumption gaps and coping strategies such as reducing meal size and frequency. Stressed outcomes are also expected in Chibombo, Serenje, Mambwe, Petauke and Nyimba.

Urban and mining-dominated areas are expected to remain at Minimal through January 2027, though FEWS NET says seasonal price rises may weaken some poor urban households' non-food spending. On assistance, the agency reports WFP continues cash and food support to Democratic Republic of the Congo refugees in Mantapala Refugee Settlement, and cites UNHCR figures of 113,054 refugees, asylum-seekers and other displaced persons across Mantapala, Meheba, Mayukwayukwa and urban areas receiving monthly food assistance covering 25 to 50 percent of their food needs.