WFP: El Niño Could Push 49 Million More Into Acute Hunger by End of 2027

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) said on 5 August that the strengthening El Niño could push nearly 50 million additional people in highly vulnerable communities into acute hunger, according to UN News. The agency defines acute hunger as the condition of people unable to meet their daily food needs.

WFP said it analysed 45 countries that are already considered food insecure and where El Niño is expected to significantly influence rainfall patterns, temperatures, floods and droughts. Across that group, the agency expects the number of acutely food-insecure people to rise from 225 million to 274 million — an increase of approximately 22 per cent, or at least 49 million people, by the end of next year.

"El Niño is a massive threat to the food security of millions who are already vulnerable," said Carl Skau, WFP's Acting Executive Director, in remarks reported by UN News. "The sooner we help families to prepare for these climate shocks, the greater our ability to save lives and protect livelihoods."

Where WFP expects the sharpest increases

WFP identified Central America and southern Africa as the regions expected to bear the brunt of the climate extremes associated with the event, while also forecasting significant impacts in eastern Africa and in South and Southeast Asia.

In its regional breakdown, the agency said Latin America and the Caribbean could see one of the sharpest rises in food insecurity, with more than 16 million people affected. Central America is projected to record the largest proportional increase of any area covered by the report, at 83.1 per cent.

East and Southern Africa face substantial risks, WFP said, particularly where upcoming rainy seasons are critical for food production. More than 18 million people in that region could see their food security deteriorate, a 26 per cent increase. The agency noted that southern African countries are especially exposed because many households depend on rain-fed subsistence agriculture.

Asia and the Pacific could see an estimated 8.2 million additional people facing acute food insecurity, according to WFP, while in West and Central Africa food insecurity is projected to increase by 12 per cent, affecting nearly six million additional people.

The agency stressed that conditions are not uniform: "Some countries are already experiencing below-average rainfall, flooding and unusually hot temperatures, while others are expected to face deteriorating conditions during upcoming planting seasons and harvests," WFP said.

For historical comparison, WFP noted that the 2015-2016 El Niño affected the food security of 60 to 100 million people.

Timing, and the case for acting early

WFP said El Niño is expected to peak between September and December 2026, but that the consequences will be felt throughout 2027 in many countries because of the effect on future harvests. "Drought, flooding and extreme temperatures are already putting communities at risk," the agency warned. Its projection of 49 million additional people in acute hunger is framed as beginning in September.

In response, WFP and its partners are scaling up work in eight countries to protect communities already contending with poverty, conflict, joblessness and repeated climate extremes. Priorities, the agency said, include preparing for floods, droughts and storms before they arrive. Working with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and other partners, WFP said it has active prevention plans in more than 50 countries.

Since May, according to the agency, WFP has triggered anticipatory action plans in South Sudan, Chad, Mauritania, Uganda, Guatemala and El Salvador, providing more than $14 million in lifesaving responses reaching half a million people. That work includes scaling pre-arranged financing mechanisms such as disaster risk insurance, credit and digital payments, intended to make more money available at lower cost.

WFP argued that acting ahead of a shock is cheaper than responding after it. Experience from earlier El Niño events, the agency said, shows that every $1 invested in anticipatory programmes can save between $3 and $7 in avoided losses and response costs.

WFP and FAO have already appealed for increased support to help at-risk communities prepare for El Niño before emergencies escalate. Further coverage of humanitarian and agricultural assessments is collected on our news page, and background on how the pattern shifts rainfall is set out in our science section.