Gulf of Guinea Floods Turn Deadly as Sahel Rains Run Below Average, FEWS NET Reports

West Africa's rainy season is splitting in two directions, according to the July 30, 2026 Seasonal Monitor published by FEWS NET. The agency reports heavy, locally above-average rainfall along the Gulf of Guinea that has produced deadly urban flooding, alongside a late and largely below-average start to the season across much of the Sahelian band, where crops are already showing water stress.

Coastal flooding and a strong bimodal harvest

FEWS NET describes isolated above-average cumulative rainfall along the coast in Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin, which the agency says triggered destructive and deadly flooding in some coastal cities. Since intense rainfall began in the middle of May, FEWS NET reports approximately 59 deaths in Côte d'Ivoire, 13 in Ghana and 5 in Togo.

The same rains have supported the southern cropping season. According to the agency, northern parts of the Gulf of Guinea countries have generally received up to 600 mm of rainfall, while the bimodal zones farther south have accumulated between 600 mm and 1,600 mm. FEWS NET states that the major season in the bimodal zones is ending in July and that a good harvest is expected.

Even so, the picture within the Sudano-Guinean belt is uneven. FEWS NET identifies rainfall deficits in western Guinea, western Sierra Leone, central Liberia, central Côte d'Ivoire, northern and western Ghana, central Togo, central and northern Benin, southwestern Nigeria and southern Cameroon, in areas where seasonal rains began in April and May.

A mixed and lagging Sahel season

The Intertropical Front (ITF) has continued moving north, FEWS NET reports, advancing along its entire length between July 10 and 20 compared with the previous dekad. As of the second dekad of July, the agency places the ITF north of its climatological position across the whole region. Despite that advance, rainfall totals remain below 200 mm in the northern Sahel, where FEWS NET says the season is not yet fully established.

Onset timing has been erratic. According to the agency, rains arrived roughly two dekads early across eastern Senegal, southwestern Niger, localized areas of northern Nigeria and central Chad, but were one to two dekads late across southwestern and parts of central Mali and across central and eastern Chad. Rains had yet to begin in northwestern Senegal and in localized areas of central Mauritania and southeastern Niger.

FEWS NET reports moderate to severe deficits in central Senegal, central Mali, central-southern Niger, northwestern and northeastern Nigeria and eastern Chad, where April 1 to July 25 rainfall came in at less than 30 to 90 percent of average. The agency links these deficits to crop water deficits and below-average vegetation conditions, and notes deteriorated conditions in Sahelian areas including Mali, Niger and Chad.

Forecasts: El Niño, drier odds, warmer temperatures

Citing NOAA CPC ENSO probabilistic forecasts issued in July 2026, FEWS NET says the ongoing El Niño event is very likely to persist through early boreal spring 2027 and has a greater than 95 percent chance of being strong or very strong in late 2026. The agency notes that, historically, El Niño events are associated with elevated chances of below-normal June through September rainfall across the Sahel.

Drawing on ECMWF weekly forecasts and CHIRPS-GEFS 15-day forecasts issued July 30, FEWS NET says areas across the Sahel could potentially receive below-normal rains from late July to mid-August. The CHIRPS-GEFS forecast also points to below-normal rains in Sierra Leone, Liberia and northern parts of Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin. For August through October 2026, the agency reports slightly increased chances of below-normal rainfall across the western and central Sahel in WMO and NMME multimodel ensemble forecasts, while the NMME indicates above-normal rains in southwestern Niger and northwestern Nigeria. Climate models — NMME, WMO and C3S — confidently project above-normal temperatures for the region over the same period, FEWS NET says.

The agency stresses that continued monitoring will be essential, since August typically marks the peak of the rainy season and supplies critical moisture for crops in vegetative and reproductive stages across West Africa.