Kariba at 35.8% as FEWS NET Flags a Dry Season Ahead for Southern Africa

Southern Africa enters its 2026/2027 cropping season with full reservoirs and green pasture in the south, but with regional climate forecasters pointing to a drier and hotter season ahead across the centre and south of the region. That is the picture set out in the Southern Africa Seasonal Monitor published by FEWS NET on 26 October 2026, prepared in collaboration with the SADC Climate Services Centre.

FEWS NET reports that, as of the first dekad of October 2026, most of the region had not yet recorded an effective onset of rains, with the exception of central DRC, north-eastern Angola and eastern Madagascar, where onset typically occurs from September. Elsewhere, onset normally arrives from October and November, and in the arid west and parts of north-eastern Mozambique, central Tanzania, central Malawi and south-western Madagascar, from December.

An uneven start to the rains

September rainfall was concentrated in central and northern DRC, north-eastern Angola and the south-east of the region, where eastern South Africa, Lesotho, southern and central Mozambique and eastern Madagascar recorded between 25 and 200 mm, according to FEWS NET's reading of CHIRPS data. Much of that south-eastern rain fell out of season, running up to 200 mm above average in parts of Lesotho and South Africa. Against that, FEWS NET records deficits of 25 to 100 mm in north-eastern DRC, which it says has now had several consecutive months of below-average rainfall, and deficits of 10 to 50 mm — locally up to 100 mm — in parts of western and central DRC, northern Angola and north-western Tanzania.

Early pre-season rains in September and early October pushed the onset anomaly at least three dekads early in some areas, FEWS NET says, including northern and western Zambia, central Namibia, parts of South Africa, Lesotho and southern Botswana and Zimbabwe. In parts of central DRC and northern Angola, by contrast, onset was erratic, with delays of up to three dekads in localised areas. The agency cites a Climate Hazards Center 30-day forecast pointing to erratic, below-average rainfall across much of the central region between 19 October and 17 November 2026.

Reservoirs recover from the 2023-2024 drought

FEWS NET records a marked recovery in water resources after two better seasons. Kariba Dam stood at 35.78% of usable storage, or 480.53 m, on 19 October 2026, compared with 11.69% on the same date in 2025 and a low of about 4.5% in November 2024, when FEWS NET says drought-driven low levels severely curtailed hydroelectric generation in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Cahora Bassa, which supplies Mozambique and the wider region, reached 56% usable storage by the end of June 2026, up from about 27% at the end of 2025. The Zimbabwe National Water Authority reported national storage of 84.3% as of 5 October 2026. In north-eastern DRC, however, FEWS NET notes slight declines at Lakes Edward, Kivu and Albert, with Edward and Kivu tracking below average.

Vegetation follows a similar split. FEWS NET describes well-above-average NDVI across southern Namibia, Botswana, South Africa, Lesotho, Eswatini, Zimbabwe and southern Mozambique, and below-average conditions in parts of Namibia, eastern and central Zambia, Malawi, central and northern Mozambique, Tanzania and Madagascar.

El Niño and the SARCOF outlook

ENSO was in a strong El Niño phase at the end of September 2026, FEWS NET reports, citing NOAA's Climate Prediction Center for a greater than 83% chance of a strong to very strong event persisting through January–March 2027, with a peak in October–December 2026 before weakening early in 2027.

The 33rd Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum, held 25–28 August 2026 in Namibia, forecast below-normal rainfall over much of the central and southern region for October–December 2026, with high confidence for southern Angola, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana, most of South Africa, Eswatini and Lesotho. For January–March 2027 the below-normal signal expands northwards into southern DRC and the bulk of Angola and Zambia, while above-normal rainfall is forecast with high confidence for eastern Tanzania and the extreme north-east of Mozambique. SARCOF also indicates a high likelihood of above-normal temperatures across most of the region from October 2026 to January 2027.

FEWS NET stresses that the SARCOF product is a consensus forecast aggregated over large zones, applicable only at large scales and long time scales, and that users needing higher accuracy should seek downscaled outlooks from national meteorological and hydrological services. The agency also reports a forecast of well below-normal tropical cyclone activity in the 2026-2027 South-West Indian Ocean season, with significantly reduced landfall risk for Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, while cautioning that reduced regional activity does not rule out cyclones. In its own words, FEWS NET says the outlook calls for strengthening anticipatory and response mechanisms and prioritising monitoring and early warning.