FEWS NET Holds Lesotho at Stressed Hunger Through May 2027 as El Niño Bites

Lesotho's southern and mountain livelihood zones will remain at Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity through May 2027, with a growing share of poor households slipping into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the December-to-February lean season, according to the Food Security Outlook published by FEWS NET covering October 2026 to May 2027. The agency says the analysis draws on information available as of 23 October 2026.

FEWS NET attributes the outlook to a combination of early depletion of own-produced stocks from the below-average 2026 harvest, weak income from self-employment, agricultural labour and remittances, and a 2026/27 rainy season it expects to be erratic and below average under ongoing strong El Niño conditions. The agency estimates that between 100,000 and 249,000 people will need food assistance, with needs peaking in the lean season and easing as the green harvest begins in March.

A season that started early, then faltered

FEWS NET reports that the October-to-March rains began early, in September, across the lowlands, foothills and parts of the Senqu River Valley, leaving soil moisture favourable after a sudden influx of late-September rainfall. Since then, however, cumulative October rainfall has run below average countrywide. In the Mountains and in the northern lowlands and foothills, the agency puts the October shortfall at 30 to 45 percent below average — a pattern it describes as consistent with historical El Niño conditions.

Land preparation and planting are nonetheless progressing at seasonally typical levels, helped by government input subsidies of 70 percent on seed and 80 percent on fertiliser, FEWS NET says. The agency expects that momentum to hold through November before agricultural labour demand turns below average during the December–February weeding period and the April–July harvest. Both the March green harvest and the main harvest from April are projected to be below average, with maize — highly sensitive to soil moisture stress — the crop most exposed.

FEWS NET also expects pasture conditions to stay favourable through December 2026 before declining to below average from January through May 2027, with livestock body conditions deteriorating in early 2027 as water and grazing resources shrink.

Markets, fuel and migrant income

Lesotho's structural dependence on imports frames the outlook. FEWS NET notes that only 12 percent of the country's land is arable and that cereal production supplies less than 30 percent of national staple food needs, with South Africa the dominant supplier of maize grain and meal. Maseru prices, the agency says, effectively track South African grain markets through import parity pricing.

Staple prices remain generally stable and below 2025 levels in the foothills and lowlands, supported by above-average 2026 production in South Africa and carryover stocks. Remote markets tell a different story: in September a 2.5 kg bag of maize meal cost 33 LSL in Qacha's Nek, 14 percent above the five-year average, against 27.51 LSL in Maseru and 21 LSL in Leribe. FEWS NET expects maize meal prices to hold steady through March before rising marginally in April, as regional demand competes for South African supply and high fuel costs add pressure.

Fuel costs rose through August and September after a July decline, which FEWS NET links to renewed Middle East tensions. In September, the agency records fuel prices up 15 percent month-on-month, diesel up 13 percent and paraffin up 28 percent.

Remittances from South Africa are below average and declining, FEWS NET says, citing anti-migrant attacks that began in April and intensified in June, alongside difficulties obtaining legal work documentation. Some migrants have returned to Lesotho and others cannot re-enter.

Assistance and the longer horizon

No humanitarian food assistance was ongoing at publication, according to FEWS NET. Citing the Disaster Management Authority, the agency reports that the government and partners have mobilised anticipatory-action funding: about 15,012 people (4,044 households) are expected to receive 96 USD per household per month from November 2026 to January 2027, while roughly 169,585 people (42,396 households) across all 10 districts are set for a one-off November distribution totalling 2,951 metric tons, each household receiving at least 50 kg of cereals, beans and rice.

Much of the Northern Lowlands and Foothills is expected to stay at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through May 2027, though FEWS NET anticipates some households there reaching Stressed during the lean season. The agency adds that the full effects of the El Niño event are expected to emerge gradually, with the most severe impacts likely beyond May and peaking in the late 2027 to early 2028 lean season.