FEWS NET: La Guajira and Chocó Held at Crisis Hunger Through January 2027

Two Colombian departments — La Guajira in the arid north and Chocó on the Pacific coast — are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through January 2027, according to the July 2026 Key Message Update published by FEWS NET. The agency links the outlook in part to strengthening El Niño conditions, which it says are likely to keep temperatures above average and rainfall below average across much of the country.

Across the rest of Colombia, FEWS NET expects widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Most poor households, in the agency's assessment, will manage to meet minimum food needs but will be unable to cover all essential non-food expenditures without falling back on coping strategies, given above-average prices and reduced opportunities to earn income. That is the defining condition of Stressed (IPC Phase 2): food consumption is minimally adequate, and essential non-food needs are the first to give way.

FEWS NET names El Niño as a driver of the outlook but does not attach an index or a value to it. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which issues the official United States ENSO status, publishes the numbers in two separate products. Its weekly sea-surface temperature index file put the Niño 3.4 anomaly — the departure from normal in the central equatorial Pacific used to classify events — at +2.6 °C for the week centred on 19 August 2026. Its ENSO diagnostic discussion, issued separately on 13 August 2026, had an El Niño Advisory in force and put the chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27 above 90 percent.

Where the pressure is concentrated

In La Guajira, FEWS NET reports that poor Indigenous and agropastoral households will continue to experience food consumption gaps, as below-average water access, weak rainfed production, and deteriorating pasture and livestock body conditions squeeze both food and income sources. In Chocó, the constraint is different: the agency describes poor Indigenous and Afro-Colombian households in remote riverine areas contending with high transportation costs and intermittent restrictions on movement, which limit access to markets, fishing and agricultural work.

The agency identifies La Guajira, Vichada, and localized parts of Arauca, Casanare and Meta as the areas where water availability, rainfed crop development, pasture regeneration, livestock productivity and associated income are expected to suffer most. FEWS NET also anticipates localized delays to second-cycle planting and reduced demand for agricultural labor in affected parts of the Andina Region, with pasture and water conditions deteriorating more broadly across Orinoquía toward December and January.

Near-term conditions, however, are not uniformly dry. FEWS NET cites July monitoring by Colombia's Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM) showing dry to very dry soils in parts of La Guajira alongside wetter conditions in parts of Chocó and Orinoquía — a spatially mixed picture. The agency also notes that recent heavy rainfall affected 16,769 households across 24 municipalities in Arauca, Boyacá, Casanare and Norte de Santander, disrupting market connectivity and farm activities in those locations.

Prices, currency and purchasing power

Markets remain well supplied, FEWS NET says, but costs continue to erode what poor households can buy. Annual inflation reached 6.14 percent in June, while annual inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages ran higher at 6.83 percent, according to the update.

Wholesale prices rose month-on-month across several food groups, though the agency stresses that trends varied by product. Potato prices were described as particularly high and volatile across multiple monitored markets. Cassava prices stayed above last year's levels at several locations despite recent monthly declines. Rice prices in Bogotá edged up but remained below both last year's levels and the five-year average, while maize meal and pasta prices in the capital were comparatively stable.

One offsetting factor identified by FEWS NET is the currency: the Colombian peso appreciated 5.7 percent between May and June, which the agency says is helping to limit broader staple price increases by reducing import costs for cereals, agricultural inputs and other imported goods. Even so, FEWS NET expects high food, utility and transportation costs, combined with irregular informal incomes, to keep purchasing power constrained.

Conflict as a parallel driver

FEWS NET treats localized conflict as a separate but compounding constraint. It expects continued restrictions on mobility and livelihood activities and disruption to trade in Chocó and other conflict-affected areas, particularly in the Pacífico Region and in coca-producing zones. Confinement, displacement, insecurity and intermittent disruption of transport routes are also cited for Antioquia, Norte de Santander, Nariño and Cauca, though to a lesser degree.

The agency reports clashes between Organized Armed Groups, attacks on security forces and armed confrontations affecting civilians across multiple departments in July. Pockets of households in these circumstances are expected to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes temporarily, FEWS NET says, even though such events are likely to stay localized and intermittent.

More FEWS NET reporting is collected on our news page, and the IPC phase terminology is explained in the glossary.