FEWS NET Holds Karo Peli at Crisis Hunger as El Niño Clouds Burkina Faso's Harvest

Burkina Faso's farming and herding season is shaping up worse than last year's, and FEWS NET expects acute food insecurity to persist in parts of the country through January 2027. In its key message update covering September 2026 to January 2027, the US-funded early warning service titles its assessment around agropastoral production prospects negatively affected by El Niño conditions, and keeps one province at Crisis-level outcomes while a broader set of conflict-affected areas sits at Stress.

Karo Peli held at Crisis, security-affected provinces at Stress

FEWS NET reports Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes persisting in Karo Peli province in September. The agency attributes this to poor rainfall limiting both wild-gathered foods and the earliest harvests. Cereals are present on markets, FEWS NET says, but household incomes are not sufficient to buy enough food, so households are cutting both portion sizes and the number of meals eaten each day. The exclamation mark in the phase classification reflects the role of assistance: FEWS NET notes that food aid received in previous months remains the main food source and is helping prevent severe consumption deficits.

That exposure to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to continue between October 2026 and January 2027, according to FEWS NET. The agency expects harvests starting in October to be marginal because of small planted areas and the damage done by dry spells. Purchases, however limited, together with additional market-garden production, are expected to help limit extreme coping strategies such as going an entire day without food.

In provinces of the north and east facing strong security challenges, FEWS NET classifies households at Stress (IPC Phase 2!) in September. Income sources are diverse there — the agency lists artisanal gold panning, remittances from relatives and firewood sales — but access to cereals on markets remains limited, and assistance is helping narrow consumption gaps. From October 2026 to January 2027, FEWS NET expects Stress (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, with new harvests becoming the main food source despite being down after long dry spells and bird damage. Dry-season production around accessible water reservoirs and purchases at relatively more favourable prices are expected to help close consumption gaps.

A late start, long dry spells and granivorous birds

FEWS NET expects agropastoral production prospects to come in below those of the past season. Access to fields has improved somewhat, the agency says, but the late installation of the season limited the area sown. Longer dry spells recorded between August and September across most regions hit yields, particularly for maize, which FEWS NET identifies as the main crop. Weak and poorly distributed rainfall also held back pasture development and the filling of water reservoirs, especially in the north of the country.

Since September, FEWS NET reports, granivorous birds have been causing significant losses to cereal crops including millet, sorghum and rice in Soum, Liptako and the areas surrounding the Yaadga and Koulsés regions.

Conflict still the main constraint

Insecurity, in the form of attacks by armed terrorist groups, remains the principal factor limiting household access to food and to customary income sources, according to FEWS NET. Incidents remain elevated, particularly in the north and east, and continue to drive internal displacement — 11,316 people displaced in August — although the agency notes the general trend is one of people returning to their areas of origin.

Those incidents also disrupt regular market supply. FEWS NET points to food prices holding atypically above average at the Diapaga market, where maize is 47 percent above average, and at Gayéri, where sorghum is 37 percent above average.