WMO Marks World Food Day With a Split Map of El Niño's Harvest Risks

The World Meteorological Organization used World Food Day on 16 October to set out how the intensifying El Niño is reshaping rainfall for farmers, fishers and food systems, describing shifts that run "from drought to deluge" depending on the region and the season. The United Nations agency said sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to increase to record levels during October–November–December 2026.

The WMO framed the event as one with no single global signature. "El Niño impacts vary from one region to another and often even within the same region, and also from season to season. Existing environmental conditions, seasonal rainfall cycles and other climate drivers also shape the outcome," said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, chief of the Climate Prediction Section at WMO.

One region, two opposite risks

The agency used the Greater Horn of Africa as its central illustration. A seasonal outlook issued in May by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) forecast below-normal rainfall for the June–September 2026 season across northern parts of the region, particularly in parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan and Sudan. According to the latest ICPAC data cited by WMO, rainfall deficits persisted across much of that sector through the season, with soil moisture deficits and vegetation stress emerging — both, WMO said, pointing to negative outcomes for crops and pasture. The season provides around 60% of annual rainfall in some areas, and because parts of those countries already face severe food insecurity, the WMO said reduced rainfall could increase humanitarian needs.

A later ICPAC outlook, issued on 19 August, forecast wetter-than-normal conditions for the equatorial and southern Greater Horn during the October to December rains. The WMO noted that up to 70% of total annual rainfall in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, and up to 40% in parts of Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and Uganda, falls in that season. The agency called the outlook welcome for pasture and water availability, while cautioning that excessive rainfall substantially raises the risk of flooding, landslides, infrastructure damage, disease outbreaks and agricultural losses.

"At different times of the year, the same climate phenomenon therefore increases drought risk in one part of the region while increasing flood risk in another, sometimes with similar and compounding impacts on sectors like agriculture," said WMO scientific officer Sebastian Grey.

South Asia, the Americas and the oceans

The WMO said forecasts issued through the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) correctly anticipated an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall during the June–September monsoon, with significant deficits already observed in several areas, including parts of India. Impacts on yields of key crops are not yet known, the agency said. For October–December — the more important season for southern India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives — WMO reported that normal to above-normal rainfall is likely over northwestern and parts of eastern and southern South Asia, including the island nations, while below-normal rainfall is likely over most of central and southern peninsular South Asia and some parts of eastern South Asia. Drought, it added, is currently a major concern across a wide area of southeast Asia.

In South America, WMO said northern Brazil typically turns drier than normal during El Niño while southern Brazil often sees above-normal rainfall from September to January, and that Chile has had exceptionally heavy rainfall that caused the Atacama desert to bloom and brought disruptive flooding. The Atlantic hurricane season has been exceptionally quiet, sparing farmers from wind and flood damage, though WMO warned that a very strong El Niño could expand drought conditions during the transition out of the Caribbean wet and heat seasons. Pacific cyclone activity, by contrast, has been very high, with Hurricane Trudy intensifying on 16 October as it moved toward the Mexican coast.

Rising ocean heat is also a concern for fisheries, the WMO said — not only in Peru, where anchoveta fishing has been suspended to protect stocks, but across the Pacific, where marine heatwaves and severe coral bleaching threaten both ecosystems and fishing incomes. The agency noted that the past eleven years have been the warmest on record, so El Niño now adds heat on top of a higher baseline.

Turning outlooks into services

The WMO said it is working with 193 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Regional Climate Centres to deliver seasonal outlooks and national forecasts, alongside quarterly El Niño Updates, the monthly Global Seasonal Climate Outlook and a tailored outlook from its Coordination Mechanism for humanitarians. It also pointed to the joint FAO–WMO report on Extreme Heat and Agriculture, which finds that rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves are cutting crop yields, increasing unsafe working hours for agricultural labourers, stressing livestock and contributing to marine heatwaves.

"Even warmer winters can have important agricultural consequences. For crops such as wheat, unusually high winter and spring temperatures can increase water demand, accelerate crop development and reduce grain yields if heat occurs during sensitive growth stages," Grey said.