OCHA Presses UNGA Delegates for Early Money as El Niño Bears Down on Africa

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has used the opening of the United Nations General Assembly to press governments, donors and development banks to release money for El Niño preparedness in Eastern and Southern Africa before the season's impacts arrive, saying the forecast is already clear enough to act on.

In a commentary published by OCHA and written by Tapiwa Gomo, the office says the World Meteorological Organization has confirmed a very strong El Niño event that will shape weather patterns through late 2026 and into early 2027. OCHA describes the regional picture as elevated flood risk across parts of Eastern Africa and heightened drought risk across much of Southern Africa, while noting that impacts will vary from country to country.

Two hazards, one event

OCHA writes that El Niño rarely affects sub-Saharan Africa uniformly. Across parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, the office says forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-average rainfall in the coming rainy seasons — welcome after years of drought, but capable of turning destructive when it damages homes and infrastructure, destroys crops, contaminates water sources and displaces people who are already recovering from earlier shocks.

Southern Africa, by OCHA's account, faces a heightened probability of below-average rainfall during the upcoming agricultural season, which could reduce crop production and water availability in a region heavily dependent on rain-fed farming. The office argues the two contrasting hazards tend to converge on similar outcomes: food insecurity, displacement, disease outbreaks and pressure on stretched services.

The article carries testimony gathered by OCHA from earlier events. In Malawi, a farmer identified as Roben described the 2024 El Niño-induced drought: "When the maize yields plummet, it's like a punch to the gut... I could only manage to provide one meal a day." In Zambia, Mervis Sheleni told OCHA that roadside sales of pumpkins, groundnuts and other crops had dried up and that savings and group loan repayments had suffered because there was no harvest.

The financing ask

Tom Fletcher, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, is quoted from July: "El Niño is back. This one looks even worse." He said the UN is "ready to disburse up to US$100 million from the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) to get ahead of this El Niño," adding that the humanitarian community is "planning, applying lessons learned from the past, innovating, coordinating" but that "we need early, flexible financing." Fletcher also said anticipatory action sits "at the heart of the renewal of the international system."

OCHA reports that more than US$28 million has already been allocated for anticipatory action in seven countries, including Djibouti and Ethiopia, with further funding in the pipeline through the OCHA-managed CERF. The office says anticipatory action nonetheless remains severely underfunded.

To make the cost case, OCHA cites several past results. In Madagascar, it says, 80 per cent of people supported ahead of a forecasted drought in 2023 reported feeling better prepared and improved mental well-being. During the same El Niño response, partners acted on forecasts in Lesotho, Mozambique and Zimbabwe with cash assistance, drought-tolerant seeds, safe water support and agricultural inputs. In South Sudan, protecting key roads and pre-positioning supplies ahead of flooding cost four times less than airlifting assistance afterwards. Ahead of the 2023 El Niño floods in Somalia, partners reinforced river embankments, pre-positioned sandbags, cleared drainage channels, issued early warnings and prepared evacuation routes. In Burundi, a woman named Amina used nearly US$80 in anticipatory cash to reinforce her home on the shores of Lake Tanganyika after an early warning.

Rein Paulsen, Director of the FAO Office of Emergencies and Resilience, is quoted urging "investment in early warning systems, emergency preparedness, anticipatory action and prevention," arguing that acting before a shock "costs significantly less than responding after people have lost everything."

A fiscal shock as well

OCHA frames El Niño as a macroeconomic problem too, citing an African Development Bank estimate that the event could cost affected African countries between US$10 billion and US$20 billion, reducing GDP in the hardest-hit countries by an average of 1 to 2 per cent. The office calls for early, front-loaded support from international financial institutions and multilateral development banks — grants, highly concessional loans, rapid budget support, contingent financing, insurance-linked instruments and, where appropriate, temporary debt-service relief — and for shock-responsive social protection, including cash assistance and school feeding, with local communities central to the effort.

OCHA's closing argument is that the region already hosts some of the world's largest humanitarian crises, from Sudan and South Sudan to Somalia, and that a drought-flood cycle would compound those needs. "The greatest danger is not the forecast itself," the office writes. "It is the failure to act on it."