FEWS NET Holds Northern Mozambique at Crisis Hunger as El Niño Risk Builds

FEWS NET expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity to persist through January 2027 in conflict-affected parts of Cabo Delgado and northern Nampula, according to the agency's Mozambique Food Security Outlook Update covering August 2026 to January 2027. The analysis, which FEWS NET says draws on information available as of August 25, 2026, attributes the northern outcomes chiefly to activity by non-state armed groups (NSAG). For the south and centre it introduces a separate risk stream: a strong El Niño that the agency assesses is increasingly likely to become a very strong event from October 2026 into early 2027.

Conflict, displacement and disrupted corridors

FEWS NET reports that increased pressure from state security forces since early July has pushed armed groups toward Quissanga, Meluco, Montepuez and Ancuabe, triggering localized civilian displacement. Citing the International Organization for Migration, the agency records 27,102 internally displaced persons in Ancuabe, Chiúre and Montepuez by late June, followed by 819 additional displaced people in Quissanga as of August 8, bringing new conflict-related displacement to approximately 28,000 people.

The update also describes reported use of improvised explosive devices along key transport corridors and at checkpoints, which FEWS NET says is pushing transporters and traders onto longer or alternative routes, adding delays and security-related risks, raising transport costs and reducing trade flows. In the agency's assessment, this limits household access to farmland, labour opportunities and markets. FEWS NET expects insecurity to continue affecting parts of Niassa, where it says conflict has already spread, and notes that NSAG movements have been reported in Nampula province during the year.

For the north, FEWS NET projects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from August to September 2026 in conflict-affected areas including Chiúre, Meluco and Palma. It expects Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes where humanitarian food assistance is available, naming the Mocímboa da Praia, Muidumbe and Quissanga districts, and says that from October 2026 through January 2027 Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to extend to those same three assistance-supported districts as food consumption gaps widen. The agency states that the humanitarian food assistance plan has not yet been confirmed by the food security cluster.

How the El Niño assumption is framed

FEWS NET's updated assumptions hold that a strong El Niño, with an increasing likelihood of a very strong event from October 2026 to early 2027, will raise drought risk across parts of Southern Africa, including Mozambique. The update does not publish an ONI or Niño 3.4 value; it lists its agroclimatic inputs as an August 2026 FEWS NET Seasonal Forecast Review sourced to NOAA, weather updates from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and IRI, and CHIRPS rainfall data from the Climate Hazards Center at the University of California Santa Barbara.

On that basis, FEWS NET expects the 2026/27 rainy season to have a delayed onset and below-average rainfall, particularly in southern and central Mozambique, with above-average temperatures deepening drying and soil-moisture deficits. The agency assesses that this would constrain crop establishment and yields, delay the recovery of pastures and water resources, limit domestic food supplies, increase import dependence and accelerate food price inflation. It also expects reduced demand for agricultural labour during the October 2026–January 2027 land preparation and planting period, and livestock body condition to remain below average through January 2027, with the highest risks in areas already hit by poor 2026 harvests and January floods.

Near-term conditions are more favourable. FEWS NET says second season and post-flood production is supplying food in flood-affected areas of the south and centre. Planting began late, in late May, so harvesting is expected to continue into November, and average to above-average rainfall in early and mid-August improved soil moisture, including in some areas that had begun experiencing water stress.

Prices and the coming lean season

Between June and July, FEWS NET reports maize grain prices declined slightly in southern markets but stayed 15–30 percent above the five-year average after flood-related production losses, while central and northern maize prices were broadly stable at 20–40 percent below the five-year average. Rice and maize meal in the central and north were generally 15–30 percent below both last year's levels and the five-year average.

Annual headline inflation eased to near 7.5 percent in July 2026, according to the agency, with food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation slowing from 13.35 percent to 12.62 percent, while transport inflation accelerated to nearly 15 percent year-on-year, largely reflecting May fuel price increases.

FEWS NET expects Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes to persist across most southern and central areas from August to September, with localized Crisis (IPC Phase 3) emerging from October to January, particularly from late November, as stocks decline and the lean season begins in November. In urban areas the agency expects Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January 2027, with a small proportion of poor households deteriorating to Crisis (IPC Phase 3).