WMO and OCHA Press for Anticipatory Action as El Niño Nears Its Peak

The World Meteorological Organization says the El Niño now under way could be unprecedented in strength — in its words, off the monitoring charts used for the past four decades — and is expected to peak towards the end of the year, with impacts lasting well beyond that. In an update published on 22 October 2026, the agency said humanitarian organisations need authoritative weather, climate and water information to prepare and act before the worst effects arrive.

WMO and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) have issued a joint call for urgent and coordinated anticipatory action. "A powerful El Niño does not have to be a recipe for humanitarian disaster. We have the science, the forecast, the early warnings to save lives and protect livelihoods. What we need now is decisive action, especially to protect the most vulnerable communities," said Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of WMO.

What the latest outlook flags

According to WMO, its outlook released on 21 October 2026 points to heightened risks of heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of East Africa during the October–December rainy season, and drier conditions in Southern Africa from November that could affect crops, water and livelihoods. Southeast Asia, the agency said, faces heat, rainfall deficits and wildfire and smoke hazards. In the Americas, WMO noted that parts of western South America have already experienced severe flooding, while drought risk is rising in parts of Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon.

A very strong El Niño disrupts normal temperature and rainfall patterns across many regions, WMO said, bringing severe drought to some areas, heavy rainfall and flooding to others, and increased heat across large parts of the world. Extreme events are already being observed and are expected to multiply and cascade as the event intensifies. The organisation added that these impacts compound humanitarian needs, particularly for refugees, displaced people and communities living in conflict, where housing, water, sanitation and health services are already under pressure.

"The window for preparedness is still open in many regions. Extreme weather conditions do not need to translate into humanitarian emergencies or into casualties, but this window will not remain open indefinitely," Saulo said.

WMO emphasised an important limitation: seasonal outlooks indicate regional tendencies rather than individual events, so regional and national forecasts — and expert interpretation of them — are needed to pinpoint where and when action is warranted.

The mechanism linking forecasts to operations

The update centres on the WMO Coordination Mechanism for humanitarians (WCM), whose role was showcased at a side event during the fourth session of the Commission for Weather, Climate, Hydrological, Marine and Related Environmental Services and Applications (SERCOM-4). WMO describes WCM as a core element of the Early Warnings for All initiative, curating information from WMO Members and Centres and co-designing tailored products with UN and humanitarian agencies. Its regular output includes Global and Regional HydroMet Weekly scans and monthly climate briefings and scans.

WMO said WCM products supported humanitarian operations ahead of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Mocha in Myanmar and Bangladesh in 2023, and in the aftermath of the 2025 earthquake in Myanmar. The mechanism is now working with partners on preparedness and early action for El Niño.

"Since 2022, WCM has delivered more than 750 tailored products, supporting humanitarian situational awareness, preparedness and early action," said Yi Wang, Chief of Severe Weather Services and WCM lead at WMO. "Together, we can help turn authoritative information into earlier action, better preparedness and more resilient communities."

Calls to widen participation

Véronique Bouchet, Senior Director of WMO's Department of Sciences, Services and Capacity Development, told the side event that evolving hazards hit displaced and crisis-affected communities hardest, and stressed co-designing services so they match what humanitarian stakeholders need. Ian Lisk, President of SERCOM, said information alone is not enough and described WCM as a bridge between scientific expertise and humanitarian action, resting on National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and WMO Centres. He encouraged WMO Members not yet involved to join, citing the need for broader engagement, user involvement and adequate resources.

Marian Schilperoord, Deputy Director of UNHCR's Division of Emergency and Programme Support, and John Long, Head of OCHA's Emergency Response Preparedness Unit, underlined collaboration between WMO and humanitarian organisations. Osvaldo Moraes, Chair of the Standing Committee on Disaster Risk Reduction and Early Warning Services, closed by underlining the importance of adequate services for disaster risk reduction.

The event drew around 50 participants and was moderated by Marzia Santini, Chair of the Advisory Group on WCM and Lead of the European Crisis Management Laboratory at the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. The full update is available from WMO; background on the phenomenon is collected in our science section.