FEWS NET Puts 3.5–4 Million Kenyans in Need as Short Rains Bring Relief and Floods

Above-average October–December short rains are expected to begin reversing months of rangeland deterioration across Kenya, but the same rainfall carries a high risk of damaging floods that will hold parts of the east at Crisis-level hunger into 2027, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) in its Kenya Food Security Outlook covering October 2026 to May 2027. The agency projects that 3.5–4.0 million people will require humanitarian food assistance over the period, with needs peaking during October and November.

FEWS NET identifies as areas of greatest concern the Dadaab, Kakuma and Kalobeyei refugee settlements; the pastoral counties of Garissa, Mandera, Tana River, Wajir and Turkana; and the marginal agricultural area of Lamu.

What the climate outlook says — and does not say

Citing ensemble forecasts, FEWS NET states that El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions are expected to strengthen through December 2026 and to weaken gradually between January and May. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to persist through December before weakening to neutral in January and remaining neutral through May 2027, although the agency attaches lower confidence to that later part of the outlook. The outlook does not name a specific ENSO index, such as the Oceanic Niño Index or Niño 3.4, nor does it give an averaging period for the forecast conditions, so the assessment should be read as FEWS NET's qualitative framing rather than a threshold-based classification. Readers unfamiliar with these indices can find background in our glossary.

El Niño conditions combined with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole are expected to drive above-average rainfall across most of the country from November onwards, FEWS NET says, offsetting October deficits and producing above-average cumulative short rains totals. Turkana is the exception, where seasonal rainfall is judged likely to be near average. The March–May 2027 long rains are also assessed as likely to be above average with a timely onset, with the agency noting uncertainty given the long-range nature of that forecast.

FEWS NET expects elevated flood risk along the Tana, Nyando, Nzoia, Ewaso Ng'iro and Athi river basins, in coastal areas and in major urban areas including Nairobi, Nakuru, Mombasa and Kisumu, particularly at the November rainfall peak. The agency considers cholera outbreaks likely across eastern pastoral and riverine flood-prone areas, with typhoid, other diarrhoeal diseases and malaria expected to increase, and wetter conditions raising the risk of a Rift Valley Fever outbreak.

Settlements, pastoral counties and farming zones

In Dadaab, FEWS NET expects flooding between November 2026 and January 2027 to disrupt market access and humanitarian operations and to increase waterborne and vector-borne disease, producing a temporary deterioration to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) before conditions improve to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) from February through May. In Kakuma and Kalobeyei, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are projected to persist through May, with assistance remaining the primary food source for more than 80 percent of refugees. Kenya's two settlements hold a combined population of around 753,000 people — nearly 430,000 in Dadaab and about 324,000 in Kakuma including Kalobeyei, FEWS NET reports. WFP assistance reached more than 650,000 refugees in October, roughly 86 percent of the settlement population, at 80, 60 and 20 percent of the minimum food basket for vulnerability Categories 1, 2 and 3 respectively, and is likely to shift to exclusively in-kind distribution from December because of funding constraints.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in Garissa, Mandera, Tana River and Wajir through January because of flood-related disruptions, and in Turkana through May because of the typically slow recovery of pastoral livelihoods after successive poor seasons. Marsabit, Samburu and Isiolo are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between October and January as rangelands regenerate. Across the southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas, FEWS NET expects Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January, with southeastern areas improving to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from February through May while lingering flood impacts keep coastal areas at Stressed.

Production, prices and assistance

FEWS NET estimates 2026 national long rains maize production at 22–28 percent below average, citing poorly distributed April and May rainfall and severe June-to-September deficits associated with El Niño conditions in the key surplus zones of the North Rift and western Kenya. Nairobi wholesale maize prices are projected to remain "near to 16 percent above" the five-year average, in the agency's phrasing, easing gradually through May as imports and bimodal-area harvests improve availability. Goat prices in September ran 10 to 42 percent above the five-year average, though traded volumes remain atypically low. Headline inflation was 7.3 percent in October, against 4.6 percent a year earlier.

The Kenyan government distributed 22,389 metric tons of food assistance in September, enough by FEWS NET's calculation to cover minimum monthly calorie needs for about 1.24 million people, with 62 percent going to pastoral areas. WFP plans monthly in-kind assistance covering 75 percent of the minimum food basket for approximately 459,000 people in six counties from November 2026 to April 2027. The full outlook is published on the FEWS NET website.