FEWS NET: Guatemala's Dry Corridor Faces Crisis Hunger Into September

Guatemala's poorest rural households in the Dry Corridor and in targeted parts of Alta Verapaz and the Western Highlands will remain in Crisis levels of acute food insecurity — Phase 3 on the IPC scale — through September, according to a key message update published by FEWS NET on 5 August 2026 covering July 2026 to January 2027. The agency links the deterioration to damage in the primera planting season, which it attributes to conditions associated with El Niño and the onset of the canícula, the midsummer dry spell.

FEWS NET describes an early and prolonged lean season in those areas. After consecutive years without staple grain reserves, the agency says, these households have extended their reliance on markets for food and face high food and transport prices, leaving them only marginally able to meet their food needs. To cover basic consumption, FEWS NET expects the poorest households to turn to coping strategies including the sale of productive assets.

A patchy rainy season

During July, FEWS NET reports that persistent high temperatures and irregular rainfall distribution caused delayed planting, decisions not to plant at all, replanting, and damage to rainfed primera-cycle staple grain crops already in the ground, with the Dry Corridor most affected. Between 20 June and 20 July, much of the Dry Corridor recorded only five to eight days with rainfall, which the agency says caused stress and wilting in maize.

The picture was reversed elsewhere. FEWS NET notes that the Franja Transversal del Norte and Alta Verapaz received abundant rainfall in mid-July, producing local flooding, soil saturation and localised damage in cropping areas.

The crop losses carry a second-order effect on incomes. According to FEWS NET, reduced crop maintenance work has cut seasonal employment and lowered the typical daily wages that households normally use to finance food purchases during this part of the year.

Fuel prices reverse course

FEWS NET also reports a change in the cost environment for moving goods. The state fuel subsidy ended at the start of July, reversing declines in diesel and gasoline prices seen during May and June and pushing transport costs back up. The subsidy had allowed prices to fall after what the agency calls significant increases in March and April, a consequence of supply chain disruptions.

The agency puts numbers on the swing: diesel and gasoline both fell 12 percent in June compared with May, then rose again on 2 July when the subsidy ended. As of 22 July, FEWS NET reports diesel was 40 percent higher and gasoline 23 percent higher than the June average price. The renewed increase, the agency says, will continue to affect freight transport costs, including for food products.

What FEWS NET expects from October

Between October and January, FEWS NET projects partial improvement. The start of the high labour demand season in commercial crops, together with staple grain harvests, is expected to improve food and income access for many households, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes across much of the country.

The exception, in the agency's assessment, is the group of households already worst affected. Poorest households in the Dry Corridor and in targeted areas of Alta Verapaz and the Western Highlands that obtained no staple grain harvest because of irregular weather conditions will have no reserves and will continue buying food on the market. FEWS NET says intensified purchasing on credit, along with coping strategies such as reducing portion sizes and atypical migration to secure a minimally adequate diet, will keep them in Crisis (Phase 3).

The document is a key message update, which FEWS NET describes as a short analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and of changes from its most recent projection for the area concerned. The full update is available on the FEWS NET Guatemala page. Further background on how Pacific warming influences regional rainfall is collected on our science and impacts pages.