FAO and WFP Seek US$202 Million to Shield 8.8 Million People From El Niño Before Harvests Fail

The Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme have asked donors for US$202 million to act ahead of the El Niño now building in the Pacific, arguing that the cheapest moment to intervene in a food crisis is the months before it arrives rather than the months after.

The Joint Anticipatory Action Appeal covers June 2026 to March 2027 — a window chosen to bracket the forecast peak of the event and the planting and harvest seasons it will disrupt. It targets 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries. As of the launch, funding in hand covered interventions for 1.2 million of them. The agencies are seeking a further US$167 million to reach the remaining 7.6 million.

Where the money would go

The appeal splits its caseload across three regions, reflecting the fact that El Niño does not produce one hazard but several, in different places at once. The mechanics behind that geographic split are covered in our explainer on the science of teleconnections.

The interventions themselves are unglamorous and deliberately so: unconditional cash transfers timed to arrive before food prices climb, distribution of drought-tolerant seed varieties ahead of planting, livestock protection through feed and veterinary support, water harvesting structures, small-scale flood defence and drainage works, and strengthened early warning systems so households receive usable notice rather than a general alert.

The economic case FAO and WFP put forward is a ratio: every US$1 committed to anticipatory action prevents up to US$7 in losses and downstream response costs. The logic is that a herd kept alive is cheaper than a herd restocked, and a family that never sells its land or pulls a child out of school does not need to be helped back afterwards.

"Early action is more effective and less costly than responding after a crisis has escalated," said FAO Deputy Director-General Beth Bechdol.

The 2026 complication

What makes this cycle awkward is that the climate shock is not arriving alone. Analysis from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, published in July 2026, points to fuel and fertiliser supply disruption stacking on top of El Niño-related drought — a combination expected to weigh on crop output in East Africa and parts of Latin America. Where a rainfall failure alone might be absorbed by farmers buying inputs to compensate, a simultaneous input shock removes that option. Two independent pressures compound rather than add.

The Hunger Hotspots report, produced jointly by FAO and WFP under the Global Network Against Food Crises, has flagged 13 countries and territories of highest concern for the June–November 2026 outlook period. Not all overlap perfectly with the appeal's 22 — hotspot status reflects conflict and economic collapse as well as weather — but the intersection is where humanitarian planners expect the sharpest deterioration.

The appeal also sets out a downside scenario for rice production, describing potential declines of 20% to 50% in affected growing regions. This figure appears in the appeal document as a scenario rather than a forecast, and readers should treat it as an illustration of what a severe outcome could look like rather than a projection of what will happen. Actual production losses will depend on the timing of rainfall deficits relative to the crop calendar, on irrigation coverage, and on how governments manage stocks and export policy.

What past events suggest about scale

Anticipatory appeals are always arguments about the future, so the honest calibration comes from what previous strong events actually did.

The 1997/98 event was measured for its economic tail rather than its immediate damage. A 2023 Dartmouth study found cumulative global losses of roughly US$5.7 trillion over the five years following that El Niño — a finding that reframes these events as multi-year drags on growth rather than single bad seasons.

During 2015–16, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that more than 60 million people were affected worldwide, with around 50 million left food-insecure across East and Southern Africa alone.

More recently, in 2023–24, WFP reported that roughly 29 million people faced hunger across Southern Africa, with maize losses in the worst-hit areas running between 40% and 80%.

Timing is the whole argument

The forecast peak for the current event falls in November 2026 to January 2027 — which lands squarely on the Southern Africa planting season and the Horn of Africa's short rains. That is why the appeal window opens in June rather than December. Seed has to be in farmers' hands before the season starts, not after it has failed; water infrastructure has to be built before the drought, not during it.

The gap between the 1.2 million people currently covered and the 8.8 million targeted is therefore not simply a funding shortfall. It is a shrinking window. Anticipatory action that arrives after the planting date has passed is no longer anticipatory — it is relief, at roughly seven times the cost. For a running record of how the current event has developed, see our event timeline.