https://elnino.news/ Independent tracker of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Verified news from official agencies worldwide — NOAA, WMO, BOM, JMA, IMD, ENFEN and more — plus the science, history and global impacts of El Niño, with every source cited. en https://elnino.news/news/cpc-august-update-nino12-lopsided-pacific/ https://elnino.news/news/cpc-august-update-nino12-lopsided-pacific/ Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports weekly SST departures of +3.2 °C in Niño 1+2 and +1.8 °C in Niño 3.4, a May–July RONI of 1.0 °C, and a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño from September–November through November–January 2026-27. news https://elnino.news/news/cpc-august-enso-discussion-subsurface-heat/ https://elnino.news/news/cpc-august-enso-discussion-subsurface-heat/ Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT NOAA's Climate Prediction Center held its El Niño Advisory on 13 August 2026, citing July values of +1.4 °C in Niño-3.4 and +2.9 °C in Niño-1+2, a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event in fall and winter 2026-27, and a separate 69% chance of a historic event in October-December. news https://elnino.news/news/cpc-august-2026-enso-update-very-strong-el-nino-odds/ https://elnino.news/news/cpc-august-2026-enso-update-very-strong-el-nino-odds/ Sun, 23 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event from September–November through November–January 2026-27 and a 69% chance of a historic event in October–December. news https://elnino.news/news/kenya-short-rains-pastoral-recovery-flood-risk/ https://elnino.news/news/kenya-short-rains-pastoral-recovery-flood-risk/ Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT FEWS NET expects El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to drive above-average October–December short rains in Kenya, easing pastoral Crisis conditions to Stressed while raising flood risk. Maize in the North Rift and west faces an estimated 15 percent yield loss. news https://elnino.news/news/fews-net-latin-america-el-nino-outlook/ https://elnino.news/news/fews-net-latin-america-el-nino-outlook/ Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT FEWS NET's June 2026–January 2027 Latin America outlook says El Niño is bringing below-average rain and above-average heat across the region, with 3.0–3.49 million people in Haiti facing Crisis or Emergency outcomes and 4.0–4.99 million in Colombia expected to need food assistance. news https://elnino.news/news/colombian-red-cross-drought-early-action-protocol/ https://elnino.news/news/colombian-red-cross-drought-early-action-protocol/ Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT The IFRC says the Colombian Red Cross activated its drought Early Action Protocol in June 2026, targeting 2,400 people in Tolima and Cesar as forecasts show a more than 50% chance of below-normal rainfall from June to August. news https://elnino.news/news/south-sudan-famine-risk-el-nino-rainfall-deficits/ https://elnino.news/news/south-sudan-famine-risk-el-nino-rainfall-deficits/ Sun, 16 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT FEWS NET reports a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) through January 2027 in Akobo, Nyirol, Ulang and Nasir, citing conflict, record rainfall deficits under strengthening El Niño conditions, and red sorghum prices up 43 percent in Nasir. news https://elnino.news/news/lesotho-maize-imports-below-average-harvest/ https://elnino.news/news/lesotho-maize-imports-below-average-harvest/ Sat, 15 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT FEWS NET says Lesotho's 2026 maize crop will be 30 percent below last year and nearly 50 percent under the five-year average, with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions expected in southern regions through January 2027 as El Niño delays the next rainy season. news https://elnino.news/news/guatemala-dry-corridor-primera-crop-damage/ https://elnino.news/news/guatemala-dry-corridor-primera-crop-damage/ Tue, 11 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT FEWS NET reports that El Niño conditions and the canícula damaged Guatemala's primera maize crops, with much of the Dry Corridor recording only five to eight rain days between 20 June and 20 July, and the poorest households classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September. news https://elnino.news/news/pace-chlorophyll-drop-central-pacific-el-nino/ https://elnino.news/news/pace-chlorophyll-drop-central-pacific-el-nino/ Mon, 10 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT NASA Earth Observatory reports that PACE satellite chlorophyll maps show substantially lower phytoplankton abundance in the central equatorial Pacific in June 2026 versus neutral June 2025, as NOAA's CPC gives a 97 percent chance El Niño lasts into early spring 2027. news https://elnino.news/news/smos-sea-surface-salinity-el-nino-early-indicator/ https://elnino.news/news/smos-sea-surface-salinity-el-nino-early-indicator/ Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT The European Space Agency reports that its SMOS satellite, launched in 2009, is tracking the eastward shift of the western Pacific freshwater pool during the current emerging El Niño, and that researchers are building an ENSO-specific sea-surface salinity index to complement temperature indices. news https://elnino.news/news/eumetsat-sentinel-3c-obligis-ocean-data/ https://elnino.news/news/eumetsat-sentinel-3c-obligis-ocean-data/ Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT EUMETSAT says Copernicus Sentinel-3C is planned for launch later this year to replace Sentinel-3A, extending a mission measuring sea surface temperature, sea level, wind, waves and chlorophyll into the 2030s. Marine applications manager Estelle Obligis describes the preparations. news https://elnino.news/news/angola-south-crisis-lean-season-fews-net/ https://elnino.news/news/angola-south-crisis-lean-season-fews-net/ Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT FEWS NET expects Stressed (IPC Phase 2)-aligned outcomes in southern Angola from July to September, deteriorating to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October to January 2027, as El Niño rainfall deficits, a 5 percent diesel price rise and maize meal at 1,144 AOA/kg erode purchasing power. news https://elnino.news/news/un-el-nino-africa-anticipatory-action/ https://elnino.news/news/un-el-nino-africa-anticipatory-action/ Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT UN News reports that anticipatory action funding reached over three million people in southern Africa and 5.5 million in eastern Africa between 2023 and 2025, while FAO and WFP aim to reach 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries as El Niño is expected to intensify. news https://elnino.news/news/fews-net-asia-outlook-el-nino-monsoon-harvest/ https://elnino.news/news/fews-net-asia-outlook-el-nino-monsoon-harvest/ Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT FEWS NET's Asia Food Security Outlook for June 2026–January 2027 links a forecast below-average monsoon to a poor kharif harvest, with assistance needs peaking at 17.00–17.99 million people in Pakistan in December–January. news https://elnino.news/news/zimbabwe-deficit-areas-crisis-october-fews-net/ https://elnino.news/news/zimbabwe-deficit-areas-crisis-october-fews-net/ Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT FEWS NET's July 2026 update for Zimbabwe expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to emerge in October in deficit-producing areas, with maize grain at 0.34–0.57 USD/kg there versus 0.22 USD/kg in surplus zones, and over 115,000 returnees recorded at Beitbridge. news https://elnino.news/news/wfp-49-million-acute-hunger-el-nino/ https://elnino.news/news/wfp-49-million-acute-hunger-el-nino/ Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT The UN World Food Programme says a strengthening El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity, lifting the total across 45 vulnerable countries from 225 million to 274 million, a rise of about 22 per cent. news https://elnino.news/news/madagascar-grand-south-early-lean-season/ https://elnino.news/news/madagascar-grand-south-early-lean-season/ Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT FEWS NET expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity in Toliara II and Amboasary Atsimo from July 2026, spreading across Atsimo-Andrefana, Androy and parts of Anosy from October, with agricultural labour earnings running 20 to 40 percent below average. news https://elnino.news/news/fews-net-west-africa-july-seasonal-monitor/ https://elnino.news/news/fews-net-west-africa-july-seasonal-monitor/ Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT FEWS NET's July 30, 2026 West Africa Seasonal Monitor reports flood deaths of about 59 in Côte d'Ivoire, 13 in Ghana and 5 in Togo since mid-May, while April 1–July 25 rainfall reached only 30 to 90 percent of average in parts of the Sahel. news https://elnino.news/impacts/indonesia-peat-fires-haze/ https://elnino.news/impacts/indonesia-peat-fires-haze/ Sat, 01 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT BMKG recorded 5,019 hotspots nationally through end-July and predicts fire risk peaking in August–September 2026, with more than half of Indonesia's land area forecast to receive below-normal rainfall. The peat mechanism is what turns a dry season into a regional haze crisis. impacts https://elnino.news/news/ecmwf-copernicus-record-forecast/ https://elnino.news/news/ecmwf-copernicus-record-forecast/ Sat, 01 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT The Copernicus multi-model ensemble initialised around 1 August projects a mean Niño 3.4 anomaly near 3.5°C for December 2026, with about 91% of members exceeding the 2015–16 record — though ECMWF cautions that absolute anomalies overstate the event against today's warm baseline. news https://elnino.news/news/wmo-strong-el-nino-2026-global-outlook/ https://elnino.news/news/wmo-strong-el-nino-2026-global-outlook/ Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT The World Meteorological Organization says the 2026 El Niño is likely to strengthen further and peak around September–November, with model projections showing seasonal sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2.9°C in key monitoring regions. news https://elnino.news/impacts/philippines-drought-pagasa/ https://elnino.news/impacts/philippines-drought-pagasa/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT PAGASA's El Niño Advisory No. 1 confirms El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, with 19 provinces already in meteorological drought in its May assessment and over an 80% probability the event runs into early 2027. For one of the world's largest rice importers, the squeeze lands on a tightening global market. impacts https://elnino.news/history/toga-tao-history-of-forecasting/ https://elnino.news/history/toga-tao-history-of-forecasting/ Tue, 28 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT After the 1982-83 El Niño blindsided science, an international decade of ocean-watching — buoys strung across the Pacific, altimeters in orbit, and the first coupled models — turned El Niño from an ambush into a forecastable event. history https://elnino.news/news/bom-australia-el-nino-iod/ https://elnino.news/news/bom-australia-el-nino-iod/ Tue, 28 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT The Bureau of Meteorology's relative Niño3.4 index reached +1.94°C in the week ending 26 July, well past its +0.80°C threshold, while the Indian Ocean Dipole index touched positive territory for the first time this year. news https://elnino.news/impacts/australia-drought-bushfire-risk/ https://elnino.news/impacts/australia-drought-bushfire-risk/ Tue, 28 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT The Bureau of Meteorology assesses the tropical Pacific as being in an El Niño phase, Murray–Darling storages sit near 46%, and the emergency sector's risk assessment for June 2026–March 2027 ranks drought, bushfire and heat as the top three risks. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole may be forming — the amplifier behind 2019–20. impacts https://elnino.news/impacts/mekong-vietnam-salinity-drought/ https://elnino.news/impacts/mekong-vietnam-salinity-drought/ Mon, 27 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT Vietnam's Mekong Delta is forecast to face severe drought and saltwater intrusion reaching 80–100 km inland from around November 2026 through April–May 2027 — an event authorities assess as equal to or worse than 2015–16. The winter-spring rice crop is being planned around it now. impacts https://elnino.news/impacts/panama-canal-shipping-el-nino/ https://elnino.news/impacts/panama-canal-shipping-el-nino/ Sun, 26 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT The Panama Canal Authority is cutting Neopanamax draft limits in two steps to conserve Gatún Lake water, while leaving daily transit slots untouched. The move shows how an El Niño rainfall deficit in one watershed transmits into global shipping costs. impacts https://elnino.news/science/why-el-nino-ends-recharge-oscillator/ https://elnino.news/science/why-el-nino-ends-recharge-oscillator/ Sat, 25 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT The Bjerknes feedback explains how El Niño grows, but not why it stops. Two complementary theories — the delayed oscillator and the recharge oscillator — explain how every event plants the seed of its own demise, and why the cycle never runs like clockwork. science https://elnino.news/impacts/colombia-venezuela-drought-hydropower/ https://elnino.news/impacts/colombia-venezuela-drought-hydropower/ Thu, 23 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT IDEAM warns the developing El Niño could be among the strongest since 1950, and Colombia's grid operator says reservoirs could fall to 19.3% under a very strong scenario. Venezuela, dependent on the Guri dam, appears among the countries in the FAO–WFP anticipatory appeal. impacts